Oscarologist picks: Tom O’Neil
Gold Derby
These predictions are 100% accurate -- except where they're wrong, so, please don't bet your ranch.
ACTOR
Heavyweight match: The wrestler vs. the gay-rights slugger. Mickey Rourke gives a more muscular performance, but he gets crushed by Sean Penn, who portrays a real person in an important story about an ongoing issue.
ACTRESS
Kate Winslet triumphs because she has a foreign accent in a movie in which she ages, she's naked and it's about the Holocaust. Who can beat that? Well, maybe Mother Superior Meryl Streep, but Kate's overdue.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz snagged most early awards and she's in a Woody Allen flick (his actors have won this category three times). But here is where most upsets occur. Watch out for Viola Davis.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Best pic champs usually claim a screenplay prize, so "Slumdog" it is. Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald story, "Button" could upset but the film strayed far from its source.
The Gold Derby blog is at TheEnvelope.com.
These predictions are 100% accurate -- except where they're wrong, so, please don't bet your ranch.
ACTOR
Heavyweight match: The wrestler vs. the gay-rights slugger. Mickey Rourke gives a more muscular performance, but he gets crushed by Sean Penn, who portrays a real person in an important story about an ongoing issue.
ACTRESS
Kate Winslet triumphs because she has a foreign accent in a movie in which she ages, she's naked and it's about the Holocaust. Who can beat that? Well, maybe Mother Superior Meryl Streep, but Kate's overdue.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz snagged most early awards and she's in a Woody Allen flick (his actors have won this category three times). But here is where most upsets occur. Watch out for Viola Davis.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Best pic champs usually claim a screenplay prize, so "Slumdog" it is. Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald story, "Button" could upset but the film strayed far from its source.
The Gold Derby blog is at TheEnvelope.com.
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