For most folks, this is just another Tuesday. But in the world of politics, this is Super Tuesday, the biggest day of balloting in the 2016 presidential race.
Voters in a dozen states will turn out for primaries and caucuses, allotting a generous share of the delegates who will decide which candidates carry the Democratic and Republican banners into the fall campaign.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the Democratic and GOP front-runners, respectively, are poised for big nights. They start out with a considerable advantage, each having won three of the first four contests.
Advertisement
The polls start closing at 6 p.m. CST, and results will roll in East to West throughout the night and, depending on how the counting goes, into early Wednesday.
Here are five things to watch for:
• Can Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont significantly cut Clinton’s delegate lead? The two candidates are not all that far apart in their share of pledged delegates. But Clinton opens up a huge advantage when adding in the “super delegates,” or party leaders, who have given the former secretary of State their support.
If Clinton leads by 100 or more delegates after Tuesday, it will be exceedingly difficult for Sanders to overtake her in the remaining contests, because Democrats award their delegates on a proportional, rather than winner-take-all, basis. He may stay in the race for some time. But his only hope of wresting the nomination from Clinton would be one blowout win after another, which seems unlikely.
Advertisement
• Can Sanders break through among black voters? Seven of the Super Tuesday contests will take place in the South, in states with substantial African American populations. In her crushing South Carolina victory Saturday, Clinton won the votes of nearly 9 in 10 black voters. Some of the earliest returns Tuesday will come from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Virginia. The results in those states, and exit polls giving an insight into the black vote, will indicate what kind of night it’s going to be for Sanders and Clinton.
Beyond that, it could also signal the candidates’ respective strength heading into future contests, including primaries in Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, where the African American vote will be significant.
• Can Trump’s rivals avoid a shutout? Trump leads the polls in all the biggest contests save Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is favored to carry his home state. The question is whether two other rivals, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, can avoid a Super Tuesday shutout. Both their strategies are predicated on surviving Tuesday and winning once the race gets to their respective home states for winner-take-all contests on March 15. A big Trump win Tuesday would not only pad his already substantial delegate lead but also raise serious doubts about the viability of Rubio and Kasich, who have yet to win a state.
Advertisement
1/54
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to the media during a campaign event on March 1, 2016, in Palm Beach, Florida, following “Super Tuesday” poll results.
(Gaston de Cardenas, AFP/Getty Images)
2/54
Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally on Super Tuesday in Miami on March 1, 2016.
(Rhona Wise / Getty-AFP)
3/54
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the background, speaks at a Super Tuesday event in Palm Beach, Fla., on March 1, 2016,
(Andrew Harnik / AP)
4/54
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets supporters at her Super Tuesday election night rally in Miami on March 1, 2016.
(Gerald Herbert / AP)
5/54
Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, waves as he arrives for his election night watch party on March 1, 2016, in Stafford, Texas. At left is Heidi Cruz, his daughters and Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
(David J. Phillip / AP)
6/54
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, his wife Jane, son Levi Sanders and others arrive to cheers during a primary night rally in Essex Junction, Vt., on March 1, 2016.
(Jacquelyn Martin / AP)
7/54
Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign rally in Miami, Florida, on March 1, 2016.
(Joe Skipper / EPA)
8/54
Florida Sen.Marco Rubio arrives at his Super Tuesday primary election night rally at Tropical Park in Miami on March 1, 2016.
(Brian Blanco / EPA)
9/54
Republican candidate Dr. Ben Carson speaks to supporters at his Super Tuesday election party on March 1, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland.
(Jessica Kourkounis / Getty Images)
10/54
Republican presidential candidate Ohio Gov. John Kasich greets supporters following a fundraising dinner in Jackson, Miss., on March 1, 2016.
(Rogelio V. Solis / AP)
11/54
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop at the Signature Flight Hangar at Port-Columbus International Airport, on March 1, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio.
(John Minchillo / AP)
12/54
A man looks for voting information before he casts his ballot in Alabama’s primary March 1, 2016, at a polling site in Birmingham.
(Brynn Anderson / AP)
13/54
Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio greets supporters during a campaign appearance in Andover, Minn., on March 1, 2016.
(Craig Lassig / EPA)
14/54
Debbie Dooley, with the Atlanta Tea Party, rubs the golden head of a Donald Trump statue “for good luck” during a Trump watch party at the Corey Center in Atlanta on March 1, 2016.
(Curtis Compton / Atlanta Journal-Constitution via TNS)
15/54
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets patrons at City Center World Market on March 1, 2016, in Minneapolis. Clinton is campaigning in Minnesota as Super Tuesday voting takes place in 12 states.
(Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)
16/54
Debra Danburg makes phone calls in support of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton from Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Austin, Texas on Tuesday, March 1, 2016.
(Tamir Kalifa / AP)
17/54
Steve Amos stands with his sons Cy, from left, and Leon, 5, as Amos waits in line to vote during the primary election March 1, 2016, in Atlanta.
(John Spink / Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
18/54
Poll manager Adrienne Dowling looks after Jane Major’s terrier mix Abby while Major casts her ballot at Mary Lin Elementary School during primary voting in Atlanta on March 1, 2016.
(Erik S. Lesser / EPA)
19/54
A voter casts a ballot in Georgia’s primary election at a polling site in a high school gymnasium on March 1, 2016, in Atlanta.
(David Goldman / AP)
20/54
A voter casts a ballot in Georgia’s primary election under the hole of a slide pole at a polling site in a firehouse on March 1, 2016, in Atlanta.
(David Goldman / AP)
21/54
A voter leaves a polling station in Boston for Massachusetts’ primary election March 1, 2016.
(Michael Dwyer / AP)
22/54
Virginia residents wait in line in the predawn hours to vote in the primary at Hunter House in Vienna on March 1, 2016.
(Jim Lo Scalzo / EPA)
23/54
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders waves as he leaves a news conference after voting in the Vermont primary at the Robert Miller Community and Recreation Center in Burlington on March 1, 2016.
(Jacquelyn Martin / AP)
24/54
Patricia Stone checks people in during voting for the Vermont primary at the Robert Miller Community and Recreation Center in Burlington on March 1, 2016.
(Jacquelyn Martin / AP)
25/54
People wait in line to vote in the Virginia primary in a fire station in Arlington on March 1, 2016.
(Michael Reynolds / EPA)
26/54
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a campaign rally at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
(Jim Lo Scalzo / EPA)
27/54
Maree Miller, of Cairo, Ga., reacts to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump as he speaks to supporters at Valdosta State University on Feb. 29, 2016, in Valdosta, Ga.
(Mark Wallheiser / Getty Images)
28/54
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont speaks to supporters at the Minneapolis Convention Center on Feb. 29, 2016, in Minnesota.
(Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
29/54
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders raises his fist during a campaign rally at Milton High School in Milton, Mass., on Feb. 29, 2016.
(Jacquelyn Martin / AP)
30/54
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders greets supporters during a campaign rally at Milton High School in Milton, Mass., on Feb. 29, 2016.
(Jacquelyn Martin / AP)
31/54
Protesters are escorted out of a rally for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at Radford University in Radford, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
(Steve Helber / AP)
32/54
Photojournalist Christopher Morris is arrested by police during a rally of Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, at Radford University in Radford, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
(Steve Helber / AP)
33/54
Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump strive to get an autograph during a rally Feb. 29, 2016, at Radford University in Radford, Va.
(Steve Helber / AP)
34/54
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a rally at Radford University in Radford, Va., on Feb. 29, 2016.
(Steve Helber / AP)
35/54
Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, gets close for a selfie with a supporter Feb. 29, 2016, during a rally at Radford University in Radford, Va.
(Steve Helber / AP)
36/54
Marco Rubio, a Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Senator from Florida, participates in a campaign event Feb. 29, 2016, in Atlanta.
(Erik S. Lesser / EPA)
37/54
Marco Rubio, Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Senator from Florida, participates in a campaign event Feb. 29, 2016, in Atlanta.
(Erik S. Lesser / EPA)
38/54
An attendee waves American and Israeli flags while Rick Perry, former governor of Texas, speaks at a presidential campaign rally for Repulican candidate Ted Cruz on Feb. 29, 2016, in Dallas.
(Laura Buckman / AFP/Getty Images)
39/54
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, left, and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley participate in a Republican presidential campaign event for Rubio on Feb. 29, 2016, in Atlanta.
(Erik S. Lesser / EPA)
40/54
Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is followed by Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., during a campaign stop Feb. 29, 2016, in Knoxville, Tenn.
(Wade Payne / AP)
41/54
Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has a selfie taken with a supporter after speaking during a campaign stop Feb. 29, 2016, in Knoxville, Tenn.
(Wade Payne / AP)
42/54
John Baca, of Atlanta, carries an American flag through the crowd while waiting for a campaign event to begin for Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio on Feb. 29, 2016, at the InterContinental Hotel in Atlanta.
(David Goldman / AP)
43/54
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets supporters with U.S. Rep Richard Neal, D-Mass., during a rally at the Lyman & Merrie Wood Museum of Springfield History on Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass. Clinton is campaigning in Massachusetts and Virginia ahead of Super Tuesday.
(Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)
44/54
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign event Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass.
(Jessica Hill / AP)
45/54
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Lyman & Merrie Wood Museum of Springfield History on Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass.
(Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)
46/54
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, accompanied by Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., speaks during a campaign stop Feb. 29, 2016, in Springfield, Mass.
(Jessica Hill / AP)
47/54
Ted Cruz, Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Senator from Texas, greets Texas Gov. Greg Abbott after Abbott introduced Cruz and his wife, Heidi Cruz, during at campaign rally Feb. 29, 2016, at the Gilley’s Dallas.
(LM Otero / AP)
48/54
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, poses for a photo with Amanda Reeves and her 7-month-old son Ty Reeves after a presidential campaign rally Feb. 29, 2016, at the Gilley’s Dallas.
(LM Otero / AP)
49/54
Ted Cruz, a U.S. Senator from Texas and Republican presidential candidate, speaks at a campaign rally Feb. 29, 2016, in Dallas one day before the Super Tuesday primaries.
(Laura Buckman / AFP/Getty Images)
50/54
John Kasich, governor of Ohio and Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a town hall meeting Feb. 29, 2016, at Castleton University in Castleton, Vt.
(Jim Cole / AP)
51/54
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz holds a rally at Gilley’s Dallas on Feb. 29, 2016.
(Larry W. Smith / EPA)
52/54
Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz speaks at a rally Feb. 29, 2016, in Dallas.
(Stewart F. House / Getty Images)
53/54
Kristi Lisenbee, of Keller, Texas, hoists a sign while entering the building as Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz holds a rally Feb. 29, 2016, at Gilley’s Dallas the day before Super Tuesday.
(Stewart F. House / Getty Images)
54/54
John Kasich, left, a Republican presidential candidate and Ohio governor, arrives for a town hall meeting Feb. 29, 2016, in the auditorium at Castleton University in Castleton, Vt.
(Jim Cole / AP)
• If they lose to Trump, can his rivals at least keep it somewhat close? Several states, including Texas and Georgia, require candidates to win a minimum of 20% of the vote to qualify for delegates. “My big question is, do other candidates add up to more or less delegates than Trump?” said David Wasserman, a campaign analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “If more, odds of a contested convention increase.”
• Whither Ted Cruz? If he fails to win Texas, his campaign is finished. But how does he fare among evangelical voters elsewhere across the South, the most religious part of the country? Christian conservatives powered Cruz to victory in the Iowa caucuses, Trump’s only defeat. Since then, however, evangelical voters have favored the businessman over the senator, despite Cruz’s explicit appeals and consistently conservative stance on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. Take away that base of support and Cruz is left with very little.
Mark Z. Barabak is a political columnist for the Los Angeles Times, focusing on California and the West. He has covered campaigns and elections in 49 of the 50 states, including 13 presidential contests and scores of mayoral, legislative, gubernatorial and congressional races. He also reported from the White House and Capitol Hill during the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations. Follow him on Bluesky @markzbarabak.bsky.social.
