After suspense, Iraqi cleric extends truce

Everything about Muqtada Sadr’s announcement Friday that he was renewing a six-month cease-fire by his Mahdi Army militia appeared choreographed to reinforce his ascent from rabble-rouser to respected Shiite Muslim cleric and political power-broker.

Until the last minute, Sadr kept Iraq on tenterhooks about whether he would extend the truce, which has been credited with helping to reduce sectarian violence and attacks against U.S. forces.

The order to extend the cease-fire for another six months was delivered to loyalist clerics in sealed envelopes and revealed to followers during midday prayers in a flourish highlighting the importance of his cooperation as the U.S. starts to draw down extra troops deployed last year.

In a statement welcoming the announcement, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s office said Sadr’s movement was “an essential pillar in the political process and the march toward a new Iraq.”

The U.S. military signaled that it was ready for dialogue with Sadr’s followers. U.S. officials, who a year ago described Sadr’s movement as the single greatest threat to Iraq, have begun referring to him as “the honorable” Muqtada Sadr. They say his cease-fire has contributed to a 60% decline in violence since June.

Sadr vehemently opposes the presence of U.S. forces and spearheaded two violent uprisings in 2004.

He announced the six-month cease-fire in August after embarrassing clashes between his Mahdi Army fighters and a rival Shiite militia during a religious festival left at least 52 people dead in the holy city of Karbala.

Sadr had said the truce would allow him to instill discipline in the ranks, ridding the militia of thugs who were giving it a bad name. Analysts suggested that he may also have wanted to avoid going head-to-head with U.S. forces, whose numbers were boosted by 28,500 last year under President Bush’s troop buildup.

Sadr’s black-clad fighters were a driving force in the retaliatory killings between Shiites and Sunnis unleashed by the bombing of a revered Shiite shrine in Samarra two years ago. The sectarian bloodshed accounted for nearly 800 deaths in Baghdad last February, compared to fewer than 40 last month, Navy Rear Adm. Greg Smith said this week.

In a statement Friday, the U.S. military said the extension would allow U.S. and Iraqi forces to concentrate on the Sunni militant group Al Qaeda in Iraq, which it now considers the No. 1 threat.

It promised to treat those who honor Sadr’s pledge with “respect and restraint,” but said it would pursue any elements that wage attacks.

“We also welcome an opportunity to participate in dialogue with the Sadr trend and all groups who seek to bring about reconciliation in building the new Iraq,” the statement said.

Sadr is unlikely to agree to a direct meeting, but his followers have had contacts with the U.S. military at a local level.

In the weeks leading up to the announcement Friday, Sadr’s aides and loyalists in parliament had complained that their foes were using the cease-fire to try to crush his movement politically and militarily.

They accused U.S. and Iraqi security forces of targeting supporters in their strongholds, such as Baghdad’s Sadr City neighborhood, and in Iraq’s largely Shiite south, where they are vying for power with the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. That party, led by Shiite rival Abdelaziz Hakim, is a key U.S. ally. Members of its Badr Organization militia dominate the upper echelons of the Iraqi security forces in southern Iraq.

Sadr had sent mixed signals about his intentions, first warning that he might order his militia back into action, then instructing his followers to respect the cease-fire. His comments were followed by an increase in rocket attacks blamed on breakaway factions of his militia who are unhappy with the truce.

Sadr’s spokesman, Salah Ubaidi, said the decision to renew the cease-fire was based on religious concerns. But Vali Nasr, a professor of international politics and an Iraq expert at Tufts University, said Sadr was well aware of the tactical and political implications.

“I think this whole maneuver was designed to make sure everybody understood the value he had,” Nasr said.

He said U.S. officials and Sadr’s Shiite rivals had long underestimated the cleric, who draws his strength from the Shiite street.

“He has proven to be a master tactician, who is able to keep one foot in the political process and maintain the image of an outsider,” Nasr said.

By rarely appearing in public, Sadr maintains the image of the underground rebel. Yet he has 30 representatives in parliament and provided crucial backing enabling Maliki’s ascent to prime minister.

Sadr, the son of a beloved religious figure slain under Saddam Hussein’s regime, has built Iraq’s largest social movement, providing assistance to hundreds of thousands of destitute Shiites. He is furthering his religious studies so he can become an ayatollah with the authority to issue religious edicts known as fatwas. And he commands what is arguably the country’s largest militia.

But retaining control of his forces probably will remain one of his greatest challenges. In the southern oil hub of Basra, a senior member of Sadr’s movement said Friday that many followers had wanted the cease-fire to end.

“I think that our enemies didn’t respect this freeze of activities before, and therefore won’t respect it now and will consider it a weakness on our part,” said the official, who asked not to be identified because he is not authorized to speak to the media. However, he said followers in Basra would support Sadr’s decision.

In his message, read by Sheik Assad Nasiri at a mosque in Kufa, Sadr thanked his followers for their “understanding and patience.”

More than 5,000 worshipers attended, many of them pilgrims on their way to the holy city of Karbala for a holiday. They waited anxiously for Nasiri to deliver his sermon, and smiled with relief after he said the cease-fire was extended.

“God bless Muqtada for freezing the Mahdi Army,” said Gazwan Jabar, a 25-year-old worshiper. “By that action, the security situation was appeased.”

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alexandra.zavis@latimes.com

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Times staff writer Tina Susman in Baghdad, special correspondent Saad Fakhrildeen in Kufa and a special correspondent in Basra contributed to this report.