Hillary Clinton rejoins the campaign trail Thursday in North Carolina after taking time off to recover from pneumonia. Donald Trump heads to New Hampshire after delivering an economic speech in New York.

  • Trump continues to side-step the birther question
  • Clinton returns to campaigning and says being sidelined at home was "the last place I wanted to be"
  • Trump finally releases the letter summarizing his recent medical exam
  • Voters are already casting ballots in North Carolina, underscoring the urgency for Clinton as she returns to the trail
  • Ivanka Trump abruptly cut off an interview she didn't like

Donald Trump's lead widens in USC/L.A. Times tracking poll, which points to likely turnout as key shift

Donald Trump's lead over Hillary Clinton in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national tracking poll grew to nearly six percentage points on Thursday, his largest advantage since his post-convention bounce in July.

The biggest reason appears to be an increase in the likelihood of Trump supporters who say they plan to vote, combined with a drop among Clinton supporters on that question. The nominees are now roughly equal in the voting commitment of their supporters, erasing an advantage previously held by Clinton.

The poll shows Trump leading Clinton, 47%-41%.

The question of voter turnout should continue to loom large until election day, making Clinton's advantage in field organizing and fundraising crucial for her if the race remains tight.

Trump's overall advantage in the poll coincides with other polls that show him closing the gap with Clinton. Because of differences in methodology, Trump tends to perform about six percentage points better in the USC/L.A. Times poll than in other polls.

On average, Clinton leads Trump by a little more than two percentage points in national polls, according to Real Clear Politics. Clinton has a 64% chance of winning the election in the FiveThirtyEight election forecast.

Here's why the poll differs from others.

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