No Matter Who Wins, Californians Can Expect More Turmoil

Costa Mesa

Arnold Schwarzenegger may be the first political candidate who travels with his own special effects. At the end of his six-minute speech to a raucous rally here late last week, he directed the crowd’s attention to an old car that his campaign had parked under a crane with a wrecking ball dangling from it.

“In the movies, if I played a character and I didn’t like something, you know what I did? I destroyed it,” Schwarzenegger said. “I brought some of my Hollywood pals here so I can show you exactly what we are going to do to the car tax.” Cue the wrecking ball. A moment after it fell, the car crumpled in a spray of broken glass and twisted metal. The audience roared.

It may have been the perfect symbol for a gubernatorial recall campaign that, in its closing hours, increasingly resembles a car wreck. The proliferating allegations of sexual misconduct against Schwarzenegger, and the controversy over comments he is said to have made decades ago about Adolf Hitler, virtually guarantee that whatever happens Tuesday, the turmoil in California will continue.

If Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante becomes governor or if Gov. Gray Davis retains his seat amid the charges against Schwarzenegger, Republicans are sure to consider their candidate the victim of dirty tricks from Democrats and the media. Imagine the howls of outrage from talk radio -- or the resistance from Republicans in the Legislature -- that Davis would face if he survives under these circumstances. Every day after a date with the hangman is a good day -- but Davis would be at war every moment for the rest of his term.

If Schwarzenegger holds on to win, the hostilities might be even more intense. Even before the allegations of sexual misconduct surfaced, Schwarzenegger was unlikely to win support from a majority of voters; it’s always been possible that fewer Californians will vote to make him governor than to keep Davis in office. Under the best of circumstances, that meant Schwarzenegger was likely to start with a precarious base if he won.

And the events of the last week mean that a Gov. Schwarzenegger would be taking office under conditions considerably less than the best of circumstances. More allegations of sexual misconduct appear likely. It’s possible that one or more of the women who have complained about his alleged behavior could file a lawsuit, in a California echo of the Paula Jones-Bill Clinton litigation.

And it’s conceivable that Democrats could use these late-breaking charges as the justification for launching a drive to recall the newly elected governor. It might be only bluster, but Democratic insiders say at least one deep-pockets donor already has promised to fund a new petition drive if the party is willing to launch it.

Even without such a formal declaration of war, the new charges mean a Gov. Schwarzenegger will face a state intensely polarized about him. Judging by the rallies over the last few days, Schwarzenegger’s core supporters consider him the victim of a smear. But weekend polls show other voters harboring increasing doubts about Schwarzenegger. With the lines hardening around him, Schwarzenegger shouldn’t expect much of a honeymoon in public opinion if he wins.

The irony is that until these charges emerged, Schwarzenegger’s candidacy offered beleaguered California Republicans the chance for a fresh start. As demographic changes have shifted California’s political balance toward the left, the GOP has been in a Catch-22: Republican candidates with views on social issues (such as abortion) liberal enough to win a general election usually have been unable to survive a primary process dominated by conservatives.

The recall allowed Schwarzenegger to leap that hurdle by presenting himself directly to the entire electorate. If he wins, he could identify the GOP with an agenda of fiscal conservatism, support for public education and social tolerance much closer to the state’s mainstream. “He has the ability to change the image of the California Republican Party,” says Duf Sundheim, the state GOP chairman.

In practical terms, a Gov. Schwarzenegger would be a huge asset for the GOP.

If his campaign is any guide, he would likely attract more cameras and notebooks than anyone who has held that office, even Ronald Reagan. He has already shown himself to be a formidable fund-raiser.

And if he rolls up his sleeves for the gritty work of recruiting and helping to fund legislative and statewide candidates who share his priorities, Schwarzenegger could place an unmistakable stamp on the California GOP by promoting more centrist candidates.

Yet the GOP faces the risk that the attitudes toward Schwarzenegger’s personal behavior will overshadow his political message and undermine his ability to redefine the party even if he wins Tuesday. Some Republicans have been hoping that Schwarzenegger’s moderate views on education and social issues would eventually help the party regain ground it lost over the last decade among women in the state.

But the parade of women accusing Schwarzenegger of misconduct will make it tougher for him to reach that audience. The net effect of these allegations may be to make this most unconventional politician into a more conventional Republican in his political appeal.

Though some polls over the weekend showed slipping support for the recall, the dissatisfaction with Davis may still give the governorship to Schwarzenegger. Yet if Schwarzenegger wins, he will be as bruised and battered as any newly elected office-holder in recent memory.

His final bus tour left little doubt that Schwarzenegger has built an enthusiastic base. But he would also arrive in office facing hostility from almost as many voters as Davis.

The safest prediction may be this: Whoever survives Tuesday, Californians can expect more broken glass and twisted metal ahead.

Ronald Brownstein’s column appears every Monday. See current and past Brownstein columns on The Times’ Web site at www.latimes.com/brownstein.