Virginia senator’s retirement announcement is bad news for Democrats

Democratic hopes for retaining control of the Senate after the 2012 election — already fading — took another hit Wednesday with the retirement of Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia.

Webb, a one-term moderate, would have waged a competitive battle against former Sen. George Allen, a Republican who is trying to reclaim his former seat. Allen now will probably be the favorite against any Democratic nominee in a state that has spent much of the last decade shifting between the two parties.

With Virginia, Democrats will be defending nearly two dozen seats, many in Republican-leaning states such as Missouri, Montana and Nebraska, or in populous battleground states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Seats in states that seem to be moving rightward, such as West Virginia and Wisconsin, also will be in play.

In addition to losing control of the House, where they lost more than 60 seats, Democrats lost six in the Senate, trimming their margin to four.

But Democrats will also have an advantage they lacked in 2010: President Obama, who will be running for reelection. That could spark the kind of turnout, particularly in the urban areas of swing states, that propelled him to the presidency three years ago.

Nevertheless, Webb’s retirement was not welcome news for a party that has already seen Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota announce his exit. Four-term Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) has yet to declare his intentions for 2012, sparking concerns that he too could depart. Last month, however, Kohl lent his campaign fund $1 million, a sign that he may be preparing to run.

“Republicans need four seats to win a majority. Conrad’s and Webb’s retirements inch them closer to the goal,” said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the Cook Report in Washington. “It’s too early in the cycle to say definitively that Democrats’ days as the majority are numbered, but their hold on that majority is looking increasingly tenuous.”

For Democrats, one bright spot was the retirement of Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent in a state that seemingly remains a party stronghold. Some of the most vulnerable Democrats, such as Missouri’s Claire McCaskill and Nebraska’s Ben Nelson, seem to be beckoning to skeptical independents by moving rightward.

McCaskill, for example, backed a ban on congressional earmarks, bucking the top Democrat in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid, in the process. And she and Nelson are among several moderates who say they are open to altering the most controversial aspect of the healthcare overhaul law that remains unpopular with many voters: the requirement that all Americans purchase insurance.

“His thinking is simple. The mandate is a Washington government requirement and he’d like to find some more market-based incentive to bring people into insurance,” said Nelson spokesman Jake Thompson.

Democrats are also banking on Republicans to help them out. In 2010, divisive Republican primaries in Nevada and Delaware led to nominations of “tea party” candidates who tanked in the general election. Democrats are hoping for a repeat of that scenario next year in several states, including Indiana, Missouri and Virginia, where Allen is already facing a primary contest with a conservative tea party favorite.

“Republican primaries cost them the Senate last cycle, and all current evidence suggests it will happen again. It’s far too early to declare Republican victory; just ask Mike Castle,” said Eric Schultz, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, referring to the Delaware Republican defeated by the tea party-backed campaign of Christine O’Donnell.

Brian Walsh, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, called Webb’s retirement “an even stronger pickup opportunity for Republicans in 2012.”

A secretary of the Navy during the Reagan administration, Webb, who turned 65 on Wednesday, gave Senate Democrats an authoritative voice on military issues. He was passionately pro-troops, as well as a fierce defender of gun rights. But he also openly worried about the widening gap between the rich and poor in America. He was the architect of a bill that improved veterans’ benefits and educational opportunities.

In 2008, he was widely mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick for Obama.

Whoever jumps in will face a formidable opponent in Allen, a former Virginia governor, whose campaign for reelection five years ago was derailed by his use of a racial pejorative.

joliphant@tribune.com

khennessey@tribune.com

Michael A. Memoli in the Washington bureau contributed to this report.