Brown starts campaign to succeed Blair

Gordon Brown launched his drive to become Britain’s next prime minister Friday, conceding that “mistakes have been made” in the war in Iraq and predicting that “the emphasis will shift” over the next several months.

Brown’s opening speech was designed to draw a line between him and Prime Minister Tony Blair, his closest political ally but also his greatest rival. The 56-year-old treasury secretary sought to bask in their joint achievements at the head of the decade-old Labor government. At the same time, he attempted to sidestep the deep public ambivalence over the Iraq war that has played a major role in the party’s plummeting popularity.

Brown suggested that it was time in Iraq to shift away from military action and toward political reconciliation and economic development.

“Let’s be clear about this. It was a security and military policy which we always intended to be accompanied by political reconciliation, which has started to happen with the democratically elected government, and economic redevelopment,” he said. “There are too many people in Iraq who do not have a stake in the economic future ... and therefore too many people who don’t feel loyalty to the regime.”

His statements provide an important window into America’s most important ally in Iraq and Afghanistan. Britain has already announced plans to begin slowly drawing down its 7,100 troops in Iraq, but the timing and dynamics of the withdrawal will be the decision of Britain’s next prime minister.

That leader will almost certainly be Brown, who as chancellor of the exchequer has held the second-most powerful post in the government. He probably will face at most a token challenge for leadership of the Labor Party. Because Labor holds the majority in Parliament, winning the party leadership would put him on track to become prime minister shortly after Blair steps down June 27. He would then be expected to serve at least through the next general elections, which must be held by 2010.

Brown possesses a canny political sense that has enabled him to remain the maid of honor at a Blair wedding that endured for more than a decade. For years, the two men were both crucial allies and suspicious rivals. Only in the last two days did they abandon years of posturing and open the way for a succession in the Labor dynasty that has won three general elections.

Blair had infuriated Brown with his long refusal to either name a date for his departure or endorse the chancellor as his successor. On Thursday, Blair announced his intended resignation, and on Friday gave Brown his unqualified endorsement.

“He’s got what it takes to lead the Labor Party, and indeed the country, with distinction,” Blair said. “He’s an extraordinary and rare talent, and it’s a tremendous thing if it’s put at the service of the nation, as it now can be.”

Brown and Blair once shared an office as young Labor lawmakers, and together in rolled-up sleeves they drafted the underpinnings of the party’s transformational New Labor doctrine in the early 1990s. At first, Brown seemed the more likely to take over the party. But the more charismatic Blair edged him aside with the promise he would be next.

Last fall, as Blair’s popularity sagged, Brown’s allies staged the beginnings of an internal party coup that prodded Blair into hastening his departure. Friday, however, Brown was magnanimous about his longtime rival.

“Tony Blair has led our country for 10 years with distinction -- with courage, passion and insight,” he said.

Some of those who know both men said the mutual praise could only have happened when it became clear they would no longer be working in the same government.

“They have a really deep and complicated relationship,” said Philip Gould, a former senior Labor political advisor. “It was never going to be easy having two hugely talented politicians together. It’s like having two Bill Clintons in the White House at the same time.”

It is widely believed that Brown, who as chancellor presided over a decade of economic growth, is less committed than Blair to introducing market-based solutions into hospitals, schools and other public services.

“He’s far more of a traditional socialist than Tony,” said Labor lawmaker Claire Curtis-Thomas.

That outlook affects Brown’s foreign policy views as well, Curtis-Thomas said. “We have all sorts of issues on immigration and asylum, and he sees that really what we need to do is assure that people don’t feel the need to flee to this country because of the economic circumstances they have at home.”

And Brown is thought to be more concerned than Blair about inequality of wealth.

“People might disagree with his tactics, but his goal is to redistribute, there’s no doubt about that,” said Neal Lawson, director of Compass, a leftist London think tank. “Whereas Blair said he’d be completely relaxed about David Beckham earning zillions of pounds a year, you’d never hear Gordon Brown say that,” he added, referring to the English soccer superstar.

In interviews with the British press, government insiders have said Brown was reluctant to support the invasion of Iraq. But they also say they do not expect Brown to order a rapid pullout. He can be expected to maintain a strong relationship with the U.S.

“I will be surprised if Gordon wanted to step into Tony’s shoes in terms of his closeness to George Bush personally,” said Matthew Taylor, formerly Blair’s chief advisor on political strategy. “But he is an Americanophile.... He’s very influenced by American thinkers, from political philosophers to community activists. He’s gotten a lot of his ideas from American policy.”

The biggest change for Britain’s government under the somber, temperamental Brown --who frequently says his “moral compass” came from his Presbyterian minister father -- is likely to be in style.

The erudite chancellor’s mind-of-its-own hair and rumpled suits only recently gave way to a more carefully groomed appearance. He has made it clear that he does not aspire to Blair’s celebrated ability to charm crowds and articulate society’s unspoken longings.

“I have never believed presentation should be a substitute for policy,” he said. “I do not believe politics is about celebrity.”

Brown’s low-key public demeanor -- rarely is a story written about him that doesn’t use the word “dour” -- disguises what associates say is a furious temper aimed at those he perceives as opponents or nitwits. But analysts also credit him for extraordinary political discipline.

“What he’s done is incredible, in terms of remaining the only credible successor to Blair for almost 10 years,” Lawson said.

“And if anyone thinks he’s done that in order to just take over for two or three years and not win an election under his own steam, then I think they would be misjudging the ability and the foresight and the tactical ability of such a politician.”

In his kickoff Friday, Brown said Britain faced new challenges that old Labor policies could not necessarily meet.

“As challenges change, we must change too,” he said. He talked of “governing in a different way” to solve problems not solely through government, but also by taking steps “to involve and engage people” and harness their abilities.

He said he would back a program of constitutional reform that would give Parliament greater oversight over government and the power to vote on decisions to go to war.

“I will listen, and I will learn. I want to lead a government humble enough to know its place,” Brown said.

But with polls showing the party with Brown at the helm several points behind the Conservatives, many are skeptical that he will be able to lead Labor to a fourth general election victory.

“I feel very sorry for Brown. I think his fate is almost there for all to see,” said Anthony Howard, a longtime leftist political commentator.

“He’ll be like Jim Callaghan,” Howard said, referring to the Labor prime minister who lost in 1979 after three years in office.

“Partly because of Blair’s dreadful self-indulgence in taking so long in going ... it’s now going to be very hard for Brown to win an election. And I do blame Blair for that.”

kim.murphy@latimes.com