A City Jolted Back From the Brink of Hope

The want ads are quite particular in their demands. Urgently needed: three-room apartment, modern layout with large kitchen. Preferably on Revolutsii Avenue or Rosa Luxembourg Street.

No matter that most of the buildings on once-tony Revolutsii have bombed-out windows that resemble the eye sockets of skulls, or that the apartments inside long ago lost their plumbing fixtures, windows and doors to artillery shells and bombs. These units are full of the best new word in the dictionary of Chechnya: potential, says Ramzan Bakanayev, who runs what may be the first real estate agency to open here in the separatist republic’s capital since 10 years of war flattened, literally, the market.

What else but potential, after all, could run a real estate brokerage with no phones, no faxes, no Internet access and electricity that makes unpredictable appearances during the day?

With the election of Moscow-backed President Akhmad Kadyrov in October and a new sense of stability, many Chechens had finally come to believe that the end of the war with Russia was near. The bombing last week that killed Kadyrov and five others evaporated any sense of stability in a region whose only certainty for years has been fear. Authorities say it is not clear whether the attack was mounted by Chechen rebels or a political opponent.

Although Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has vowed to hold new elections in September, Chechens worry that the sudden vacuum of power -- and the coming battle for leadership in the turbulent Russian republic -- could end a budding prosperity that had barely been given a chance.

“When this happened on May 9, we closed the store for two days,” said Malkan Alikhanova, who six months ago opened a boutique selling Italian fashions in a burned-out and otherwise empty building downtown. “We hardly had a chance to take a breath of free air and improvement, and then this happens.

“I already left Grozny two times, for two wars,” she said. “If we’re made to leave here a third time, I think we would probably prefer to die here. Even our customers are saying: ‘We can’t do it again. We’re just too tired.’ ”

Anyone who was waiting for trouble to start in the wake of Kadyrov’s assassination didn’t have to wait long. Shortly before midnight May 12, dozens of armed men wearing military camouflage uniforms and black masks fired grenades into eight apartments in downtown Grozny, sprayed them with automatic weapons fire and hauled off five residents to unknown fates.

Their apparent quarry: members of Kadyrov’s presidential security service, a 3,000-strong private militia that in the last six months has launched some of the most violent operations against suspected insurgents. Three others from Kadyrov’s personal guard were arrested in Gudermes, Chechnya’s second-largest city.

“Can you imagine, there are 212 children in this apartment building, and all of them were crying. It was truly hell on Earth,” said Lyudmila Popova, the head of the building’s tenants committee.

Since 1994, Moscow has fought two wars to put down separatist rebellions in Chechnya. The small Caucasian republic has been left in ruins and become a breeding ground for terrorists who have mounted dozens of attacks in Russia.

Putin, who won election in 2000 largely on his pledge to “destroy” the rebels, had sought to end the conflict by handing over control of the republic to a tough-minded Chechen who was willing to put down the rebellion while remaining loyal to Moscow.

Kadyrov was that man, and without him, Putin’s entire policy has been thrown into doubt.

The feared security force, headed by Kadyrov’s 27-year-old son, Ramzan, presents some of the most troubling uncertainties in the wake of the president’s assassination, which occurred at a public celebration marking the anniversary of the German defeat in World War II.

Some believe this week’s apartment raids were an attempt to reassert Moscow’s authority over the paramilitary group.

Thursday night, Chechen television showed a large gathering of troops in Kadyrov’s hometown, Tsentoroi, all of them publicly declaring their unwavering loyalty to Ramzan Kadyrov -- raising doubts about how easy it would be to elect a new president not backed by the Kadyrov clan.

Ramzan has said he will not run for president, especially since Chechnya’s constitution requires the president to be at least 30.

But his name has emerged repeatedly, and Chechens say the constitution could quickly be amended should the Kremlin decide that Ramzan was the only candidate capable of carrying on his father’s legacy.

A former rebel leader who switched sides and backed the Kremlin in trying to put down Chechnya’s bid for independence, Akhmad Kadyrov gave his men virtual free rein against suspected insurgents and those who supported them.

The new presidential security force was believed responsible for the arrest and disappearance of hundreds of young Chechen men and, together with the Russians, for harsh operations aimed at villages suspected of providing rebels with aid and comfort.

Human rights groups strongly criticized Kadyrov’s methods, and many citizens complained that the Chechen leader was as brutal as his Russian backers. Yet many also said that Kadyrov’s tough administration had produced the first stable period Chechnya had seen since 1994, and the first hopes for a peaceful future.

Large numbers of rebel leaders have been rounded up in the last few months, and gunfire and explosions in Grozny are far less common. Kadyrov set up a system to pay pensions and welfare, which had been in arrears for years.

Against all odds, the traffic lights in Grozny started working for the first time two months ago, though hardly anyone pays much attention to them.

“There has been a breakthrough in the development of the situation in Chechnya. The turning point has been passed. And the personal role of Kadyrov in this was indeed prominent,” said Abdulla Bugayev, a former Chechen deputy prime minister who unsuccessfully challenged Kadyrov in the October elections, which were widely seen as rigged.

“Kadyrov’s death has thrown the republic into a terrible state of shock, and unfortunately the forecasts are far from being optimistic,” Bugayev said.

Many Chechens say bulldozing away the rubble and rebuilding the republic is more important than who gets elected. With 450,000 Chechens out of work, many are counting on the government’s promise of about $10,000 in compensation to each family whose house was destroyed in the wars.

The program, many Chechens say, is mired in red tape and administered by bureaucrats who demand kickbacks before paying out benefits.

“It’s impossible to make any inquiries. We went in several times to check on our application. There are guards everywhere, and nobody says anything. I can’t even find out where my papers are,” said Malika Magomadova, who is living with three other families in a small house built by the government for returning refugees.

Until the compensation comes through, Magomadova must support herself and her 12-year-old daughter on a monthly welfare subsidy of $4.83 and food handouts from aid organizations. “There are people who are well ahead of me. They filed two years ago. And they’ve still seen nothing.”

Putin appeared surprised when he flew over Grozny this week, pronouncing the appearance of the city “horrible.” Four years after most of the heavy warfare, the streets are sinkholes of mud, and 90% of the buildings are demolished.

Boutique owner Alikhanova said: “I took a picture of our building to our suppliers in Italy. They were really surprised that you could run a decent operation in a destroyed building like this. And they said they would be happy to supply us.”

Musa Yusupov, who runs a construction-supply business in Gudermes, said the economy could take off overnight if the Russian government began paying compensation, if restoration money reached its intended recipients instead of corrupt intermediaries and if businessmen had access to credit.

Yusupov started his business in 2000 with four employees and now has nearly 110, with total sales of nearly $10 million a year -- at least until last week. After Kadyrov’s assassination, he said, business plummeted to a tenth of what it had been.

He said a functioning banking system is the key to bringing Chechnya back from the dead.

“I’m one of the top 10 biggest private businessmen in Chechnya, and I simply can’t get a loan at any rate,” Yusupov said. “If I was given a loan at 15% to 25% interest, immediately I would be able to create 500 new jobs this year,” he said.

At Hospital No. 9 in downtown Grozny, several victims of the May 9 explosion are still recovering, including popular singer Tamara Dadasheva, who had just finished performing “My Chechnya” in front of Kadyrov’s seating stand when the bomb exploded.

She sustained a severe fracture to her leg and shrapnel wounds and was running a high fever in the brain surgery ward.

“I don’t know what’s happening, but I know the Chechen people are tired of walking at gunpoint all the time,” she said. “We’re praying to Allah so that we would be left alone. We want peace.

“And really, do we not deserve this? We’re asking the entire world to just let us be left alone.”