Poking the Russian Bear

Georgia, the homeland of Josef Stalin, has long seen its dream of independence crushed by Moscow. The tumultuous reception that President Bush received Tuesday in Tbilisi’s Freedom Square affirmed that the former Soviet republic is now moving westward as quickly as it can. With Georgia, Ukraine and other onetime Kremlin satellites embracing democracy, how long should it be before they become full-fledged members of the West, holding membership in NATO and the European Union?

A while, at least when it comes to NATO. Before he goes any further in emboldening Georgia and Ukraine, Bush should reconsider and avoid needlessly antagonizing Russia. Washington should have good relations with the former Soviet republics and encourage their democratic evolution, but it would be counterproductive for the U.S. to make Russia feel increasingly encircled by NATO.

Bush’s suggestion Tuesday that NATO membership may be in Georgia’s future was both reckless and foolhardy. The fate of Russia’s own democracy is uncertain under Vladimir V. Putin, and Western disregard for Russian pride and security concerns could make matters far worse by unleashing a nationalistic backlash.

Already the U.S. and Western Europe have gone further than they could ever have imagined at the end of the Cold War in expanding their influence at the expense of the Kremlin, including incorporating the former East Germany, the Baltic states and much of Eastern Europe into NATO. From a Russian perspective, this was not the reward expected for peacefully withdrawing tanks from the region and allowing the reunification of Germany. Incorporating even more countries into NATO, especially one like the Ukraine that is part of Russia’s historical core, would compound the sense of betrayal. Moreover, it would also make NATO too large and unwieldy.

On French television, Putin warned last Saturday that if Ukraine were to enter NATO, as its president, Viktor Yushchenko, hopes, it “could have problems. I say this frankly.” The same would hold true for Georgia, where Moscow has promoted instability in a bid to divide and conquer the republic.

Neither Ukraine nor Georgia is even ready to enter NATO. Like Ukraine, Georgia barely qualifies as a democracy. It is also racked by internal strife. NATO’s military obligations are reciprocal; does anyone really want to see U.S. or British soldiers fighting to preserve a security guarantee to Georgia?

What’s more, the West needs Russia as a friend, not an enemy. Bush should be working to gain Putin’s cooperation, particularly on Iran and North Korea, where Russia is a key player. The U.S. also needs Russian assistance in destroying dangerous nuclear stocks and in fighting proliferation.

After taking a number of swipes at Russia during his visit to the Baltics, Bush shelved his anti-Russian rhetoric when he met with Putin. But no sooner did he visit Georgia than he resumed, declaring that its sovereignty “must be respected by all nations.” That goes without saying. But before Bush goes any further, Russia, not Georgia, should be on his mind.