John McCain’s veepstakes
John McCain must envy Barack Obama. The Illinois senator needs a running mate who does just three things: Appeal to centrists and moderates, bolster his foreign-policy weak spot and not turn off the base. Plenty of potential VPs can do that.
McCain, meanwhile, needs a running mate who can do roughly a dozen things: reassure skittish evangelicals, deliver a key state, shore up his weakness on economics, appeal to swing voters, attract women, be an acceptable conservative standard-bearer, add energy to the ticket, and on and on. ... Yet no potential veep can do all of these things, and only a few can do most of them. The advantage for McCain is that, as the stodgy underdog, he has to think big, while the perhaps too-exciting Obama seems sure to play it safe. To follow: a guide to the most-discussed candidates for the job. Discuss the veepstakes breakdown here.
| Appeals to | Alienates | Risk factor | Bottom line | |
Former Gov. Mitt Romney R-Massachusetts | Hugh Hewitt, the right-wing wonkosphere, Mormons, CEOs, McCain-wary Bush donors, millionaires with important hair | John McCain | Low. Though he could exponentially increase the "Hey, look at the dull white guys!" factor | Safest of the bold picks |
Former Rep. Rob Portman R-Ohio. Director of the Office of Management and Budget, 2005-07 | Indispensable Ohio voters, free traders, conservative establishment, C-SPAN junkies | Protectionists | Low in terms of skeletons or gaffes; high on the may-bore-voters-into-a-stupor scale | The responsible choice if McCain was ahead by 20 points, but probably really can't deliver Ohio |
Sen. Joe Lieberman I-Connecticut | Independents, hawks, swing Dems, Jews, Israel supporters, neocons | Left-wing bloggers, Republicans who'd like at least one GOP loyalist on the ticket | High: For every swing voter he lures, two conservatives might be turned off | Better to save him for secretary of Defense or State |
Gov. Charlie Crist R-Florida | Valuable Florida voters, non-ideological Republicans, Greek Americans | People who still don't understand why he's on the shortlist, fans of natural tanning | Medium-High: Too many potential surprises from the just-got-engaged governor | McCain's been doing OK in Florida, so why bother? |
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee R-Arkansas | Pro-government evangelicals, pro-lifers, Southerners, working-class populists | Economic conservatives, the conservative establishment, and me personally | High: Would suck up McCain's oxygen while promising to raise taxes on people who don't laugh at his jokes | GOP doesn't need a Lonesome Rhodes character as its heir-apparent |
Gov. Haley Barbour R-Mississippi | Conservative establishment, K Street, Southerners, NASCAR dads | Moderates, centrists, Southernphobes | Medium: Former K Street warlord would undermine McCain's reformer appeal | A one-legged man at a butt-kicking contest stands a better chance |
Gov. Bobby Jindal R-Louisiana | Conservative wonks, Indian Americans, media, nearly everyone else | Whippersnapper-phobes | Low: Great reform credentials and identity politics oomph. Little foreign policy experience | Great for the GOP. Still, could look like McCain's intern |
Gov. Sarah Palin R-Alaska | Women, pro-lifers, visually unimpaired heterosexual men, pro-Hillary swing voters | Alaska's kleptocracy | Medium: Provincial political experience and no foreign policy; putting her young kids through the wringer may not fly | Savvy former beauty queen from the most outsider state has a great story and solid pro-life credentials; could be a home run |
Carly Fiorina McCain advisor, former Hewlett-Packard chief | Women, media, Chamber of Commerce crowd | Conservatives who think a record of conservatism is really important | High: Smooth talker, too smooth; never say "Viagra" in connection with oldest candidate ever | If McCain goes for a woman, she seems to be his favorite |
Sen. Tom Coburn R-Oklahoma | Barack Obama, social conservatives, GOP rank and file | Independents, moderates, swing Democrats | Medium: Delivers no states; makes Bob Portman seem sexy | Would rev up the base and bolster McCain's pork-buster rep |
Sen. John Thune R-South Dakota | Republicans who loved seeing him take out Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004 | Anyone who didn't | Low: Attractive, relatively safe | Earmarking junior senator doesn't help the McCain narrative |
Rep. Marsha Blackburn R-Tennessee | Everyone who says, "If only Tom Coburn was female" | Liberals who think conservative women are traitors | Low: She'd please the base while putting the gender card in play | The safest of the female picks |
Former Gov. Jeb Bush R- Florida | Bush loyalists, Floridians, Latinos, GOP establishment, wonks, many conservatives | Those inclined to self-immolate at the prospect of hearing the name "Bush" for 4 to 16 more years | Stratospheric: Best governor of either party in 20 years, with reform cred and Latino crossover appeal, but ... | ... Would-be self-immolators outnumber Bush loyalists by 5 to 1 |
Gov. Tim Pawlenty R-Minnesota | John McCain, moderates, reformers, wonks, Minnesota-based conservative bloggers | The many who think conservative reform is a Trojan horse for "me-too Republicanism" | Medium: Popular, hockey-playing coiner of the buzzphrase "Sam's Club Republican" couldn't deliver own state | Most plausible of the reformer veeps |
Tom Ridge Former Pennsylvania governor and secretary of Homeland Security | Tom Ridge, Pennsylvanians, pro-choice Republicans, pro-nuclear-freeze Republicans, fans of color-coded terror | Conservatives who have looked at his post-Vietnam War record | High: The only argument anyone makes is that he could carry Pennsylvania | If he can't deliver the Keystone State, "Sexier than Arlen Specter" won't wow the base |
Jonah Goldberg, a weekly Op-Ed columnist and editor at large for National Review Online, is the author of "Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left, From Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning."
