New Hampshire poll: Mitt Romney leads in state that holds nation’s first presidential primary

Mitt Romney boasts a healthy lead in a new poll of New Hampshire voters, but an overwhelming majority in the first-in-the-nation-primary state are far from settled on their favored candidate a year before they cast their ballots.

The new survey from the University of New Hampshire is the first look at the landscape by a respected pollster since the 2010 elections and comes as more potential candidates test the waters in the Granite State.

Among a sample of 357 likely Republican primary voters, Romney led the field with 40%, a finding that would seem to confirm the conventional wisdom that the former Massachusetts governor is the front-runner in the state where he still owns a lakeside home.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also ran in 2008 but largely abandoned New Hampshire in the weeks leading up to the state’s primary, was backed by 10% in the new poll. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee tied at 7%.

Sarah Palin, who hasn’t visited the state since she campaigned there as the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, gets just 6% support in the poll, tying her with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Nearly four in five GOP voters ? 78% -- say they are still trying to decide whom to support, and could change their mind. It’s not uncommon for voters to expect multiple personal contacts with candidates before settling on a choice, and even then not until the final days before casting their ballot.

Romney is viewed favorably by a whopping 73% of likely GOP primary voters. More voters view Palin unfavorably ? 50% -- than favorably ? 33%. And there seems to be little appetite for real estate mogul Donald Trump, who is viewed unfavorably by nearly two of three GOP voters.

“Romney is doing well in part because his brand of Republicanism fits with most New Hampshire Republicans, who can be characterized as ‘Rockefeller Republicans’,” said Andrew Smith, who conducted the survey for the UNH Survey Center. “New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country and social conservatives have difficulty winning here. Fiscal issues are much more potent in the Granite State.”

The UNH survey also finds that among likely Democratic primary voters, 10% would back a candidate other than President Obama, while 27% were unsure. He lost the state’s primary in 2008 despite polls that showed him well ahead of then-Sen. Hillary Clinton, a result that speaks to the unpredictability of New Hampshire voters.

In general election matchups, the poll finds that Obama leads Palin 57-34% and Pawlenty 44-37%. But Romney would capture the state’s four electoral votes, leading the president 49-41%. Self-identified independents break to Romney by a margin of 45-32%.

The date of the New Hampshire primary has yet to be determined, but both national parties have endorsed a schedule that calls for a Feb. 14, 2012 election. State law empowers Secretary of State Bill Gardner to set the date at the time of his choosing, so long as it is seven days before any similar contest. Florida Republicans are said to be considering a late January primary, as they did in 2008.