President Is Favored as Ugandans Head to Polls

Voters began filing to polling stations here today in a surprisingly competitive presidential contest that some worry could reignite violence in this East African nation.

Most people predict that President Yoweri Museveni, who has led Uganda for 20 years, will secure a third term -- if not legitimately, then through ballot-rigging. One recent poll by Uganda’s Daily Monitor newspaper showed Museveni leading 47% to 36% over his main rival, Kizza Besigye.

But the gap has been narrowing in recent weeks. If no one wins at least 50% of the ballots today, a runoff election between the two top vote-getters will be held next month.

“This has been the toughest campaign he’s ever had to fight,” Sali Simba, a political science professor at Makerere University in Kampala, said of Museveni. The president’s aides “are trying to do everything they can to avoid a runoff,” he said.

Simba said a runoff probably would favor Besigye by unifying Uganda’s four opposition parties against the president.

Whatever the outcome of this election, Uganda’s first multi-party presidential race since 1980, the hard-fought campaign appears to have emboldened the opposition movement, particularly in urban areas and on college campuses. If allegations of voter fraud emerge, as they did five years ago, some fear there may be violent protests.

“Museveni has been pushing people against the wall for some time now with violence and intimidation,” said Winnie Byanyima, a former lawmaker and Besigye’s wife. “Young people, in particular, want to see fairness and a real alternative. I see all the signs for instability. People are losing faith in the electoral process and looking for other means to change the government.”

Museveni says he’s not worried and has predicted a landslide victory. At a rally this week, he declared that he was the only candidate with “the capacity to contain the many problems of Uganda.” Nevertheless, he has run an aggressive campaign.

When Besigye returned in the fall from self-imposed exile in South Africa, Museveni had his rival arrested on charges of rape and treason. Besigye spent two months of the campaign in jail before he was released on bail.

Museveni’s supporters also tried to have Besigye’s name removed from the ballot.

As election day approached, Museveni crisscrossed the nation in an army helicopter to shore up support, particularly in rural areas where his political base is strongest. He promised to give away cattle and food to the poor, and blamed the nation’s woes -- including a worsening electricity shortage and high unemployment -- on his political enemies and foreign “meddlers” such as overseas lenders.

In recent days, the campaign was marred by bloodshed. Last week, at an opposition rally, two Besigye supporters were shot dead by a government soldier. On Monday, riot police fired tear gas into a crowd of opposition supporters.

Fearing violence, some Kampala business owners closed their shops today. One resident said he brought his two sons home from boarding school for the week “just in case there’s trouble.”

Museveni is credited with liberating Uganda from a succession of brutal dictators who controlled the nation after inde- pendence, including strongman Idi Amin. He liberalized the economy, allowed Western investment and has been viewed by the United States as a buffer against the Islamic regime in Sudan. His progressive anti-AIDS campaign became a model for the continent, lowering infection rates from 18% of the population in the 1990s to 7%.

But in recent years, Museveni, 62, is said to have grown increasingly tightfisted, autocratic and isolated in his rule. Critics point to rising corruption and nepotism in the government and to Museveni’s inability to crush the Lord’s Resistance Army in the north, where rebel attacks on civilians have led to 90% of the population being displaced over the last 20 years.

To the disappointment of many, last year Museveni pushed through a constitutional amendment to lift presidential term limits and announced that he intended to run again.

“Museveni has had his chance and he has not been able to deliver,” said James Lubga, 23, an economics major at Makerere University. “It’s time to give someone else a chance.”

Ronald Ssekito, 24, said he voted for Museveni in 2001. But after watching his two older brothers fail to find jobs after graduating from college, Ssekito plans to vote for Besigye.

Whether Besigye can do better remains unclear. The retired army colonel once fought alongside Museveni and was his personal physician. Besigye held several ministerial positions, but their alliance fractured in the 1990s after he accused Museveni’s National Resistance Movement of betraying the revolution by turning into a “kleptocracy.”

Besigye ran against Museveni in the 2001 election but won only 28% of the vote to the president’s 69%. Opposition leaders went to Uganda’s highest court, which acknowledged irregularities but declined to overturn the results.

As for their current rematch, Human Rights Watch has questioned the fairness of the race, pointing to Museveni’s use of government funds to campaign and his control over state-owned media.

Despite the deepening political divisions in Uganda, Simba said a close race might be healthy for the country.

“This whole experience has forced [Museveni] to recognize that the opposition is strong and serious,” the political science professor said. “Should he try to mess around in the future, the chances for his party and presidency will be limited.”