N. KOREA SAYS YES, FOR NOW, TO A FREEZE

Weary negotiators from six nations reached a tentative agreement early this morning on the first steps toward dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

The pending deal, coming after marathon talks and years of frustration, is believed to call for North Korea to freeze plutonium production at its main nuclear center at Yongbyon and allow international atomic energy inspectors back into the country. In return, the impoverished nation would be given energy assistance and related aid.

A second, more protracted phase would address thorny disarmament issues.

The tentative deal is based on a one-page document circulated late last week by China calling for a several-stage agreement under which both sides would take measured steps forward to ensure compliance and build trust.

Details on the apparent breakthrough were not immediately available, pending approval by the governments involved. Talks reconvened today at the Diaoyutai Guest House in west Beijing. The six-nation talks involve the United States, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia.

“We think this is an excellent draft,” said an obviously tired Christopher Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator, at the end of 16 hours of talks. “I don’t think we are the problem, or would be the problem.”

Any announced agreement with the government in Pyongyang should be treated with caution, given its history of faltering compliance and broken deals. That said, some analysts expressed cautious optimism that this could be a long-awaited turning point in negotiations with North Korea’s autocratic leadership, which raised concern and ire across much of the world when it announced the testing of a nuclear device on Oct. 9.

The six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear program began in 2003.

“There was an agreement on the key differences of North Korea’s actions for denuclearization, their scope and how far they’ll go,” South Korean envoy Chun Yung-woo told reporters. “North Korea basically agreed to all the measures in the draft.”

All six nations must still sign off on the deal reached by their negotiating teams. Questions remained over how the deal would be funded.

Assuming the accord is confirmed, attention in coming weeks will shift to working groups aimed at addressing a variety of technical issues involving denuclearization, energy requirements, diplomatic recognition, timing and financial sanctions, among others.

“This is only one phase of denuclearization,” Hill said. “We’re not done.”

North Korea is estimated to have enough plutonium for as many as 13 nuclear weapons. According to an estimate by the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, Pyongyang could have the capability to develop as many as 17 nuclear weapons by 2008.

Still unclear was whether North Korea would be required to give up any existing nuclear stockpiles under the agreement.

The talks hit a wall in recent days when the North demanded huge amounts of energy aid, reportedly more than 2 million tons of heavy fuel oil annually, before it would agree to begin dismantling its program. The amount compares with 500,000 tons settled upon in the failed 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea negotiated by the Clinton administration.

That deal fell apart in late 2002 when the U.S. produced evidence it said showed North Korea was engaging in a secret uranium enrichment program, in violation of the pact. U.S. officials say North Korea admitted during talks at the time that it had such a program, but Pyongyang has since denied making such an admission.

During negotiations of the last few years, North Korea has frequently staked out bargaining positions widely seen as unrealistic in a bid to test the bottom line of those sitting across the table. The United States, Japan and South Korea responded by urging North Korea to reduce its demands, a move that apparently worked.

Japan, which has other issues of contention with North Korea related to the abduction of several dozen Japanese citizens in the 1970s and ‘80s, welcomed the apparent progress.

“We are closely watching the development to make sure North Korea makes the right decision toward nuclear abandonment,” Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told a parliamentary committee session this morning.

Experts said the key to any meaningful deal moving forward would be obvious, tangible progress within a matter of weeks under a structure that afforded North Korea no wiggle room to back out of its commitments.

“We must be vigilant and keep North Korea’s feet to the fire throughout the implementation phase,” said Don Gross, a former State Department official who is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council in Washington. “It is critical to U.S. security to keep this all under tight control.”

Also key will be ensuring that any agreement has the support of hard-liners in both Washington and Pyongyang, who in the past have resisted accommodation.

John R. Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, harshly criticized the tentative deal, arguing that it made the United States appear weak.

“I am very disturbed by this deal,” he told CNN. “It sends exactly the wrong signal to would-be proliferators around the world: ‘If we hold out long enough, wear down the State Department negotiators, eventually you get rewarded.’ ”

A key question throughout the talks has been whether North Korea really wants a deal or is stalling to sidestep sanctions.

“Whether or not the parties reach an agreement, this has been a major North Korean victory,” said Zhang Liangui, a professor with the Central Party School in Beijing. “The longer they drag things out, the bigger is their victory.”

The fact that the United States and North Korea have come even this far, however, reflects more flexibility and a softening of positions on both sides, analysts said.

North Korea faces growing anger from China and South Korea, two neighbors the isolated nation has traditionally counted on for financial and political support, in the wake of its nuclear test and a separate missile test last year.

The North’s sense of isolation also reportedly increased after the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to enact sanctions less than a week after the nuclear test was announced. In the past, it has counted on China or Russia to protect its flank in multilateral organizations.

Financial pressure exerted by China and the United States on North Korea’s bank accounts in Macao have taken a toll. Pyongyang also may feel that its October test enhanced its deterrent against a military attack, even as the Stalinist government may be realizing that nuclear testing is more technically difficult than it thought. Its relatively small, 1-kiloton explosion was viewed outside the country as only partially successful.

The Bush administration also seems more willing to deal, given its declining popularity in opinion polls at home and the many issues competing for its attention abroad, including Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. The U.S. softening in recent weeks has left some wary that Washington could sign a bad deal, however, in a desire to gain political points domestically.

“A deal is good for George W. Bush in the short term and good for [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Il,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations with People’s University in Beijing. “But it may not be so good for legit denuclearization. If the pressure on North Korea is not kept up, the U.N. sanctions will fall away, leaving them to decide later to ratchet up their threats again.”

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mark.magnier@latimes.com

Yin Liijin in The Times’ Beijing Bureau contributed to this report.

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Key points

Among the elements believed to be in the tentative accord’s first phase:

North Korea would:

* Freeze plutonium production

* Allow international inspectors to return

Other nations would:

* Offer energy assistance, related aid

Source: Times reporting

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What comes next

Steps expected to follow the tentative deal, with the potential for breakdown at any point:

* The six nations involved in the talks -- the U.S., the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia -- sign off on the deal, which was hammered out by negotiators over the last five days in Beijing.

* North Korea agrees to freeze its nuclear program as a first step toward eventual dismantling, and to let international inspectors view key nuclear sites, in return for energy aid.

* Working groups are formed, perhaps within the next month, on technical issues related to denuclearization, energy aid, financial sanctions, so-called sequencing issues covering the order in which steps are taken, and broader aid and diplomatic recognition.

* North Korea agrees to end its nuclear weapons programs with the goal of creating a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and enhancing security in Northeast Asia in return for further aid, security assurances and diplomatic recognition.

Source: Times reporting

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Key dates

October 1994: U.S. and North Korea sign pact intended to freeze North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for fuel and help building light-water nuclear reactors for power.

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October 2002: U.S. officials say North Korea acknowledges existence of a nuclear program in violation of the 1994 pact.

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December 2002: North Korea orders inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, to leave North Korea and restarts its main reactor at Yongbyon.

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January 2003: North Korea says it is withdrawing from the global nuclear arms control treaty.

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May 2005: North Korea reports it has removed fuel rods from its main nuclear reactor, a key step toward preparing to harvest plutonium for bombs.

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July 2006: North Korea conducts missile tests.

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Oct. 9: North Korea reports underground nuclear test.

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Feb. 8, 2007: Latest talks begin between negotiators from North and South Korea, the U.S., Russia, Japan and China, and a draft plan to have North Korea shut down its Yongbyon nuclear plant is agreed upon.

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Feb. 12: Negotiators reach a tentative agreement on initial steps for North Korea’s nuclear disarmament.