IRAN: Does Ahmadinejad have Khamenei’s OK, or not?

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Western observers, including the the Los Angeles Times, jumped on recent comments by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that appeared to be a ringing endorsement for firebrand president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as he prepares to compete for a second term next year.

Under the headline ‘Supreme Leader sees Ahmadinejad for second term in office,’ the official Islamic Republic News Agency on Monday reported Khamenei’s weekend remarks urging the current government to begin acting as if it were going to have another four years in office.

Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, a rival of Ahmadinejad, suggested he would abide by Khamenei’s remarks. But he spoke in a manner that could have been laced with a hint of the sarcastic dissimulation for which Iranians are famous.

‘We thank our wise leader who has indicated the boundary for criticism and stressed legal monitoring and emphasized cooperation and understanding among officials to prevent turmoil,’ Rafsanjani told reporters Tuesday morning on the sidelines of a meeting.

But some Iranian observers said Khamenei’s remarks were overplayed in the press. One said Khamenei’s comments were meant to encourage officials to work harder and not to slack off during their final year in office. Just like Iraqi politicians like to claim they have the support of revered Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iranian politicians like to say Khamenei backs them even if he doesn’t.

Hassan Rowhani, Iran’s former nuclear negotiator, told reporters Tuesday that Khamenei’s remarks were misconstrued. ‘The supreme leader did not mean that this government can extend its term for another four years,’ he told reporters. ‘The supreme leader meant the Cabinet should think in terms of long-term plan ... and should not slow down.’

Many Ahmadinejad opponents remain optimistic that he’s on his way out. Ahmad Zeidabadi, a leading Iranian dissident, rated Ahmadinejad’s chances at ‘zero,’ primarily because Khamenei no longer favors him.

‘Khamenei preferred a more good-looking president with more moderate language,’ he said.

Ahmadinejad owed his victory in 2005 to hardline Basiji militia supporters ‘who chose him out of the blue’ to oppose the moderate Rafsanjani, who was widely perceived as corrupt, Zeidabadi said.

Plus, ‘people are not happy with Ahmadinejad. Whoever you ask in the street swears at Ahmadinejad. They hate him.’

Still, he said, Ahmadinejad ‘has won over forces loyal to Khamenei and it is dangerous for the supreme leader if a confrontation comes up. Khamenei never wants to dismiss Ahmadinejad. He is waiting for his term to end.’

Indeed, regardless of whether Khamenei is backing the current president or not, some reformists have already announced they will jump into next year’s presidential fray. Mehdi Karrubi, for example, is the mid-ranking cleric and former speaker of the Iranian parliament who lost to Ahmadinejad in the first round of 2005 elections. Earlier than usual, he announced that he will run for president next year.

At least two other moderates, former president Mohammad Khatami and Rowhani, who is close to Rafsanjani, are openly musing about making presidential runs.

— Borzou Daragahi in Beirut and Ramin Mostaghim in Tehran

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