ISRAEL: Elections, suddenly interesting and too close to call
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In recent weeks, many Israelis had written off the election campaign as boring. Recycled candidates, the same age-old security agenda and a military operation that had pretty much put the kibosh on the campaign, making it all work and no play.
The results had looked predictable. The Likud Party was winning by a landslide, Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu would once again be prime minister.
A few weeks ago, Bibi was so far ahead that his campaign people were saying they wished elections could be moved up while things were looking so good.
Now, with Likud and the Kadima party neck and neck, elections are suddenly too close to call.
Things got interesting when Likud started losing stature and votes to other parties on the right. In part, the predicted drop in Likud seats corresponds to an increase in Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) party leader Avigdor Lieberman’s power.
Another factor are smaller right-wing parties such as Habayit Hayehudi, the Jewish Home party (new incarnation of the National Religious Party, or NRP). Earlier, it was predicted they wouldn’t pass the qualifying threshold, but now some polls give it four seats.
Seeing the drain on his mandates, Netanyahu’s campaign is now stressing that a stable, strong government depends on Likud being big and strong enough. Warning of ‘complacency’ (the doomsday word used in Israel in two contexts only, defense and elections), Bibi urged right-wing voters not to take his victory for granted and split the vote of the ‘national camp.’
His rivals Kadima party chief Tzipi Livni and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak too are battling complacency with turnout. Potentially, everything is still wide open.
Israel has a single-ballot electoral system. Citizens cast one ballot only, and the party with the most votes wins the elections and its chairman, put forth as the party’s candidate for prime minister, is usually the one to form a government and coalition with other smaller parties. The country flirted briefly with electoral reform and introduced a split ballot, one for prime minister and the other for a political party. Bibi and Barak had both been elected directly in the ‘90s. Not considered successful, the reform was undone within a decade.
Some fear direct elections concentrate too much power in one place, eroding that of the large parties as anchors. Others would like to see a change in the system that would allow them to vote more in keeping with their conscience and, in addition to picking a big-party prime minister, also vote for smaller groups that reflect a more civic and civilian agenda in parliament.
-- Batsheva Sobelman in Jerusalem
Photos: Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu, former and maybe future Israeli prime minister, top, and candidates for the parties eroding his support, the Jewish Home, left, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Credit: Batsheva Sobelman