Greenspan Talks Recession; Housing News “Awful”

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Greenspan says there is a one-in-three chance the U.S. is heading into a recession, a good headline, but there isn’t much more in this story from The Guardian.

Personally, I got a lot more out of this Lou Barnes column at Inman.com. Barnes does not believe there is a housing bubble, but he believes the housing market is worsening rapidly:

‘The newest housing reports give me pause. They are awful. The April run-down on home building from Credit Suisse is an off-the-table affair, and their study is one of the few hard-data pieces. In 37 metro areas, April conditions deteriorated in 18, and improved in one. ... the best grade in the United States was a B- in Salt Lake City, eight in the C range, 18 Ds and 10 Fs -- including the entire states of California and Florida. This is a home-building report, not resale, but carry this thought: builder weakness is not a sign of builders pulling back; these guys are desperate to sell enough houses to keep the engine going ... and they are failing.’

‘One of the very best housing sources, utterly dispassionate, is the market guidance by mortgage insurance companies to their underwriters. MGIC’s newest quarterly analysis shows not the slightest sign of bottom: of 73 metro areas, seven are strong, and 27 are weak, soft or softening. Changes of condition from the prior quarter, as of April: six softening, three weakening, none improving.’