UCLA: No recession coming

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News item from the L.A. Times: ‘Brushing aside conventional wisdom, UCLA economists say California and the nation will survive the housing slump and job losses without plunging into recession -- although it will still be miserable for many Americans.’

More: ‘’We are holding firm: no recession this time,’’ UCLA Anderson Forecast Director Edward Leamer said in a report being released today.

For what it’s worth, UCLA predicts that GDP will dip by 0.4% in the second quarter, but that GDP will show marginal growth in the first quarter and third quarter. In other words, the economy will stall, but will restart quickly enough to avoid the technical definition of a recession, which is two quarters of negative growth in a row.

Essentially, UCLA is predicting that the first half of 2008 will feel a lot like a recession, but won’t meet the technical definition.

I’ll flesh this post out later in the morning with more details, but wanted to get it up so you can weigh in with your thoughts on where the economy is going. Thoughts? Comments?