A poll on pocketbook issues -- and your chance to weigh in

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The country is in a surly mood about the economy, energy prices and inflation prospects, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll suggests.

But many people aren’t feeling surly enough to say no to government help for strapped homeowners -- or to say no to a boost in the capital gains tax rate.

I’m highlighting here some of the findings in the nationwide telephone poll of 2,208 adults conducted May 1-8 -- and inviting blog readers to chime in with their views.

Here goes:

--The economy: Those tax rebates landing in Americans’ mailboxes aren’t doing a lot to brighten the mood. Most people in the poll (78%) believe the economy is in recession, and few see much hope for things to improve in the next six months. Just 19% of all respondents predict the economy will be in better shape in six months, while 37% say things will be worse and 40% see things staying about the same.

The rally in stock prices since mid-March indicates much more optimism about the economy on Wall Street than on Main Street. Who’s going to be right this time?

--Crude realities: Almost no one believes oil prices will come down -- which naturally means this would be the perfect time for prices to break because it would contradict conventional wisdom. Asked where they expected oil prices to be in one year (compared with the cost of about $119 a barrel at the time of the survey), 67% of all respondents predicted higher prices. Just 14% predicted a lower price and 14% said they expected the price to be about the same.

--Inflation angst: The majority believe inflation will continue to rise over the next year from the current annualized rate of 4% in the consumer price index: Sixty-one percent of respondents expect inflation will be higher in the next 12 months. Just 11% foresee lower inflation.

If the public is right on inflation, the Federal Reserve will be hard-pressed to keep holding short-term interest rates at 2% -- and there will be a lot of shocked investors in the Treasury bond market, where a 10-year note now pays just 3.9%, or less than the current inflation rate.

--Housing help: In something of a surprise to me, 60% of respondents said they supported ‘the federal government providing assistance to individual homeowners who have been caught between rising mortgage payments and falling home values.’ Just 25% opposed the idea of government help; 15% said they weren’t sure.

But I wonder if the majority would have had the same view if the question had been phrased differently -- say, to include the words ‘taxpayer-funded bailout.’ Some respondents’ idea of ‘government assistance’ may not extend that far, but we can’t tell from the simple poll answers of ‘support’ or ‘oppose.’

In any case, there is more sympathy for government help for struggling homeowners among lower-income groups than higher-income groups. Among poll respondents earning less than $40,000 a year, 68% support the idea of government aid. Among those earning $101,000 or more, just 40% are in favor.

--Capital gains give-back: Investors seem to be mentally preparing themselves for an increase in the long-term capital gains tax rate, which many people presume would be on the agenda if either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama wins the White House.

Asked if an increase in the tax rate to 20%, from the current 15%, would cause them ‘to sell shares, for tax reasons, that you otherwise would not sell,’ just 20% of people who own stock said they would be motivated to sell. By contrast, 66% said they wouldn’t sell; 14% weren’t sure. The results weren’t materially different for investors above and below the $100,000 income line. For example, 65% of those earning between $60,000 and $100,000 said the prospect of a tax increase from 15% to 20% wouldn’t drive them to sell, and that was echoed by 70% of those earning $101,000 or more.

There is a threshold for pain out there with a higher capital gains tax rate, but 20% apparently isn’t it.