AutoNation CEO: GM Will Survive. Chrysler? Who knows.

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If Chrysler were to liquidate, its vehicles would sell for 30 to 40 cents on the dollar.

That’s the best estimate of AutoNation Chief Executive Mike Jackson, who addressed concerns about the status of Chrysler and General Motors Corp. in announcing his dealership chain’s first quarter earnings report this morning.

‘On Chrysler, I think it’s likely a deal gets done, but it’s possible that, due to the complexity of the negotiations, it can’t get done and you have to wind down that concern,’ said Jackson, who added that he believes GM is all but certain to survive the bailout process.

‘For GM, I’m not concerned,’ he said.

Jackson’s own company saw earnings for the quarter decline 32%, as new and used sales decreased, service revenue was down and credit remained tight. Still, that result -- a $34.6-million profit for the quarter, or 20 cents per share -- beat analyst expectations of 16 cents per share earnings.

AutoNation revenue dropped 36% to $2.47 billion.

Because AutoNation was able to eliminate $500 million in debt in the quarter while at the same time reducing inventories by 20,000 vehicles, Jackson portrayed the results in a positive light.

Despite a national auto sales rate as low as it’s been in decades, Jackson said, ‘we remained solidly profitable,’ adding that he expected sales to pick up slightly in the second quarter and more so in the second half of the year. ‘We likely saw the deepest point of the trough in the first quarter,’ he said.

Beyond his thoughts on the value of Chrysler autos in case of a liquidation, he also expressed his confidence that GM would survive the bailout process. Jackson has met with the Obama administration’s autos task force three times and said he walked away with the impression that whether or not GM files for bankruptcy, it would be supported by the government.

‘It’s understood that this is a historic moment to get it right and get it right now,’ said Jackson, praising reports that GM would consider closing down its production for up to nine weeks this summer. Jackson said production must be significantly reduced and a large portion of dealerships must close for GM to fully recover.

As for Chrysler, Jackson suggested that while much of the company is in peril, the Jeep brand is too valuable to completely disappear. He even floated a provocative wild card to the analysts and reporters listening to the quarterly call: ‘Jeep may get folded into GM.’

-- Ken Bensinger