Delinquency tide turning? Mortgage report sends mixed signals
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The Mortgage Bankers Assn. said Wednesday the tide of home-loan delinquencies finally may be ebbing, with the combined percentage of home loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due declining to 14% in the first quarter of this year from 15.02% at the end of 2009.
The quarterly report on soured mortgages seemed destined to reignite the debate over whether the stabilizing economy and loan modifications were creating a lasting improvement in the housing markets.
The report sent mixed signals, noted Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the trade group. The figures showing a decline in the overall rate of troubled loans were not seasonally adjusted, while other statistics showed delinquencies increasing slightly after adjusting for seasonal factors.
Brinkmann said this month’s seasonally adjusted numbers ‘should be viewed with a degree of caution,’ noting that the economy had begun to generate jobs and layoffs had declined -- factors that could override the normal seasonal factors in the group’s calculations.
About half of the states saw increases in the rate of foreclosure starts on a year-over-year basis, with the
largest increases coming in Oregon, North Carolina and Maryland.
But others saw decreases, with the biggest drops recorded in California, Florida and Rhode Island.
Almost all of the states saw year-over-year decreases in sub-prime adjustable-rate-mortgage foreclosure starts, while almost all had increases in prime fixed-rate and FHA foreclosure starts.
-- E. Scott Reckard
