Republicans gain edge over Democrats with 21-point swing among independent voters

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Here’s another sign that something is happening among independent voters this year: Republicans have edged ahead of Democrats by a ratio of 48% to 44% in the latest measure of how registered voters say they are inclined to vote in the midterm 2010 House races.

In the so-called generic ballot test that the Gallup Poll runs, Democrats held the advantage, 50% to 44%, in early July polling.

With voters of both parties holding strong allegiance to the generic candidate of their own party, the tipping of the balance is attributable to a big swing in sentiment among independent voters.

Earlier this year, Republicans held a one-point advantage over Democrats among independent voters surveyed. In the latest poll, Republicans hold a 22-point edge. Independents favor the generic Republican candidate for Congress in 2010 by 52% to 30%.

“Over the course of the year, independents’ preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown,’’ Gallup reports.

The findings of this Nov. 5-8 survey follow the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, where independent voters in large numbers helped elect Republican candidates for governor, the same states where the independents had helped elect President Obama just last year.

Obama’s job approval has held at 54% in the latest Gallup Poll daily tracking, which measured lows of 50% several times in recent months.

See the report on the swing of independent voters in the Swamp.

-- Mark Silva