A viewer’s guide to Obama’s speech on Afghanistan
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President Obama is preparing to address the nation on Afghanistan tonight, a move to sell his policy to a variety of audiences, domestic and foreign. The White House has signaled the key points, but it won’t be official policy until the president speaks. Here is a 10-point guide to what most people will be waiting to hear.
(1) What will be the number of U.S. troops?
Obama is expected to announce that the United States will send more than 30,000 additional soldiers and Marines to fight in Afghanistan, now in its ninth year of war. The United States has already authorized 68,000, troops so that will bring the U.S. commitment to around 100,000-plus.
(2) When will they be sent?
Originally, the White House indicated that it would take more than a year to send the troops, but the current estimate is that some will arrive by spring, the start of the usual fighting season, and that all will be in Afghanistan by the end of summer.
(3) What will Obama say about the cost?
Probably very little. The cost is usually pegged at about $1 million a year for each trooper, so the total costs could be $30 billion to $40 billion more. Expect the funding issue, and the question of a war tax, to be fought in Congress.
(4) What will Obama say about whether the NATO countries and allies will send more troops?
There are about 40,000 NATO and allied troops in Afghanistan. Obama wants those countries to send more, and an announcement is expected within weeks. The other countries will likely contribute several thousand more troops.
(5) What will Obama say about the mission?
Obama will likely argue that the United States’ security interest in fighting terrorists demands a larger presence to support the existing Afghanistan government. He will also likely argue that the U.S. needs to help the Afghan people in their development.
Look for the president to stress the training of Afghanistan troops and police as the United States pushes to make the war more of a local issue. Expect the president to use some variant of the language used by White House aides: “This is not an open-ended commitment.”
(6) What will Obama say about the Taliban?
The Taliban is the Islamist movement that was kicked out of power with the United States’ help. The rebels are now fighting mainly in the south of Afghanistan and are a threat to the existing government of Hamid Karzai. For the U.S., one key question is how to deal with the Taliban and whether the group must be defeated to prevent a return of Al Qaeda from Pakistan. Look for signals from the president on how he sees the endgame.
(7) What about Pakistan?
Expect Obama to make an overture about the need to buttress Pakistan, now going through its own internal political battles. The president will likely argue that Pakistan must be included in any offensive on Al Qaeda.
(8) What will be the benchmarks?
Expect Obama to lay out some goals for U.S. involvement and some for an exit strategy -- what has to be done by whom -- so that the United States and its allies can withdraw.
(9) What will be the foreign political problems Obama faces?
One of the tests for the president is how he handles the conflict between his domestic and foreign audiences. He will want to reassure Americans that there is a time when U.S. involvement will end, but that also means he is asking foreign troops to take risks in a temporary escalation. Those different goals could be a problem.
(10) What about domestic political concerns?
It will be interesting what, if anything, Obama offers the liberal wing of the his own Democratic Party, which opposes any surge. Many of the liberals were hoping for a withdrawal from Afghanistan.
It will also be interesting if the president reaches out to the GOP, which generally supports the surge.
-- Michael Muskal
