Rothenberg Political Report predicts GOP win in Massachusetts
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As the candidates waded through their last full day of campaigning and national Democrats tried to deal with their jitters over the stakes, the prestigious Rothenberg Political Report this morning predicted a Republican upset in the closely watched Senate race in Massachusetts.
Republican Scott Brown will likely defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in Tuesday’s special election to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, the report said.
“The combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race,’ according to the analysis.
“Brown is running extremely well with independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win,” it said. The report notes that special elections are notoriously fickle and “often come down to turnout.”
President Obama tried to stir Democratic passions in a quick trip to help Coakley on Sunday.
Both sides this morning tried to keep up their momentum.
Coakley, the state’s attorney general, told more than a 1,000 people at a Martin Luther King Jr. Day breakfast in Boston that voting was a way to fulfill the civil rights leader’s vision. As she has before, she castigated the GOP years under President Bush, a not-so-subtle dig at her opponent, Brown, who also attended the event but didn’t speak. Democrats continued their effort to portray Brown, a state senator, as anti-woman and pro-bankers.
The great political cliche is that the candidate with the best ground game wins, and weather, of course, can be a key factor. Snow in Massachusetts could cut down on the number of voters.
But the overall registration numbers are especially disheartening for Coakley despite running for what started out as a safe Democratic seat in a normally liberal state. Enrolled Democrats have a solid edge by a ratio of 3-to-1, but independents are 51% of the electorate. Polls show that it is the independents who have responded to Brown’s anti-liberal, and anti-incumbent message.
At stake is whether Democrats can hold on to their 60-member caucus and be able to act on Obama’s domestic agenda, especially healthcare overhaul.
So far, healthcare has been a debate within the ruling Democratic Party. The party has been split between liberals and conservatives, who managed to resolve their differences to pass different versions in the House and Senate. Only one Republican congressman crossed over to vote for the bill; in the Senate the 40 Republicans stood together to oppose any bill.
Negotiations are under way to resolve the differences between the bills, but that melding still must be passed by both houses. If Brown wins, he has vowed to vote against the healthcare bill.
Preparing for the worst but hoping for the best, the White House and Democratic allies in Washington are considering how to get a bill through even if Coakley loses. One way is for the House to pass the Senate bill, though that version is less than House liberals wanted.
If Obama has put his reputation on the line in the race, so too, have top Republicans.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a possible GOP presidential candidate, sent out an e-mail supporting Brown. Both Karl Rove, Bush’s political advisor, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona have electronically weighed in on behalf of Brown.
-- Michael Muskal
