GOP wins by changing national debate, regardless of Massachusetts outcome

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In a very real sense, Republicans have already won today’s special election in Massachusetts because the national political debate has been turned on its head.

Voting has already begun to decide whether Republican Scott Brown or Democrat Martha Coakley will win the Senate seat held by the late Edward M. Kennedy, but polls have showed Brown with an edge in a race that remains too close to call.

If the outcome is up for grabs, the impact of the race couldn’t be clearer.

Just one year ago, Barack Obama rode a wave of hope and promises of change to become the nation’s first African American president. He said he would change the world’s perception of the United States by ending wars while bringing a bipartisan approach to a near-gridlocked Washington.

Today, he has escalated the war in Afghanistan while continuing to fight the war in Iraq. The economy may be showing signs of recovery, but there is still a general unhappiness at the high jobless numbers. Bipartisanship has become an epithet, and the president’s major domestic program, healthcare reform, is reminiscent of the Vietnam War, splitting the country into unreconciled chunks, with officials hoping to claim any victory just to avoid any defeat.

It was healthcare that fueled the current political uprising that could result in the state Sen. Brown defeating Atty. Gen. Coakley, once considered a shoo-in.

Early voting in Massachusetts was heavy, as was the presence of ads urging people to go to the polls in the special election, normally a time for a light turnout. Coakley said this morning that her camp was “paying attention to the ground game. ... Every game has its own dynamics. ... We’ll know tonight what the results are.”

But even before the polls close at 8 p.m. EST, Republicans can bask in how they have changed the debate. Running against Obama’s healthcare has propelled Brown into the national spotlight and, according to some polls, into becoming the likely winner.

In response, Democrats have poured last-minute money, manpower and prestige into a race that was a walk-over just weeks ago. Their efforts to find a way to pass healthcare reform if they lose the crucial 60th vote in the Senate has an air of confusion, at best, and desperation, at worst. Neither is an especially good fit for a governing party going into midterm elections.

“I think it’s been a fascinating process to watch unfold,” Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele told the Associated Press this morning. “A year ago, the landscape was very different than we see it today.”

A year ago, Obama’s approval rating hovered near 70%; today most polls put him around 50%, an expected but still chilling drop-off as the president moves into his sophomore year. Obama, in recent days, has become more the fiery populist in talking about bank fees and the need for jobs. Expect those themes to continue when Obama gives his State of the Union address next week, along with calls for budget restraint to appeal to conservatives and independents and to undercut GOP issues.

Even though they have changed the political debate to something more suitable to their liking, Republicans have their own problems. They too face unhappiness from conservatives complaining that establishment Republicans have moved away from the GOP ideology of small government, low taxes and tough defense. The tea party phenomenon has been felt in Massachusetts and Florida races and will be a force throughout the year.

How those Republican wings work together to fly the body politic will be the GOP story for 2010, when Democrats are expected to loose some of their hold on Congress.

-- Michael Muskal Twitter.com/LATimesmuskal

Upper photo: Massachusetts Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley campaigns with her husband, Thomas O’Connor, right, in New Bedford. Credit: Peter Pereira / The Standard Times / Associated Press

Lower photo: Massachusetts state Sen. Scott Brown votes in Wrentham. Credit: Robert F. Bukaty Associated Press