It’s too soon to know when the recession ended, economists say

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

A group of economists on Monday said that it was too soon to know when the U.S. recession had ended, a technical ruling that has more than academic interest in this midterm election year.

In a statement published on its website, the National Bureau of Economic Research said that the usual indicators showed the economy was improving, but that it was too soon to put a date on when the recession ended.

“The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met at the organization’s headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 8, 2010,” the group said. The committee examines economic indicators to determine the trough date, the end of contraction and the beginning of expansion for the recession that began in December 2007.

“Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature,” the group said. “Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months.”

For many people, dealing with a 9.7% national jobless rate and a still-weak recovery, the exact date the recession ended has little meaning. But politically, it does have meaning.

As recently as last week, polls again found that the economy was the No. 1 concern among voters, with jobs in third place. A ruling that the recession has ended could bolster the Democrats’ argument that their efforts have brought the country back.

Meanwhile, Congress returns to Washington this week with the economy heading the agenda.
Democratic leaders will try to break a Senate gridlock over legislation to extend unemployment benefits that for more than 200,000 people lapsed March 31 because of a political dispute with the GOP.

Republicans blocked the extension, arguing that the cost should be offset by other spending cuts to avoid raising the deficit.

Also possible are other anti-recession bills dealing with job creation and taxes.

-- Michael Muskal

Twitter.com/LATimesmuskal