Poll shows Republicans doing well in November as voting begins in three states

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In what is being viewed as important straws in the political winds, three states hold key elections on Tuesday but the latest polling continues to show Republicans are in a strong position in this midterm election year.

Voters said they preferred Republicans over Democrats by 46% to 45%, according to a Gallup tracking poll released Tuesday. It was the eighth week that Republican candidates matched or exceeded Democratic popularity in this type of generic ballot.

Traditionally, Republicans can expect an advantage in turnout so that if the parties are close, Republicans can expect to do better in November when control of Congress is at stake.

The latest results come as the voting began Tuesday morning in three states where races are being closely watched as possible signs for November.

In Pennsylvania, voters are deciding whether to oust Sen. Arlen Specter, 80, who changed parties to become a Democrat partly because the five-term senator probably would not have been renominated as a Republican. The White House backs Specter against two-term Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak.

Polls show the race is too close to call, but the White House decision to forgo a last-minute presidential visit to help Specter is causing political ripples. Obama is scheduled to be close by, visiting Ohio to discuss the economy on Tuesday.

On Monday, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters that Obama was following Tuesday’s races, but “not that closely.”

“We have supported incumbent Democratic senators and we’ve done a lot on behalf of each campaign,” he said of the Specter campaign and of White House support for Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. Lincoln is facing a challenge and polls show she probably won’t get the 50% she needs to immediately win renomination.

Also being watched is the Pennsylvania special election to fill a vacant seat left by the death of Rep. John Murtha. The race is viewed as a test of Democratic hopes in November.

In Kentucky, Republicans are fighting among themselves with the state’s GOP hierarchy backing Secretary of State Trey Grayson against Rand Paul, supported by the ‘tea party’ movement.

-- Michael Muskal

Twitter.com/LATimesmuskal