Lessons learned from a conservative primary night
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Not all of the winners and losers Tuesday night were on the ballot. Some, like Sarah Palin, were watching from the wings, and some, like President Obama, were at center stage in the White House.
Though it is way too soon to predict what will happen by 2012, Palin and Obama could easily be opponents in the next presidential election. Even if they are not direct rivals, what they represent will shape the midterm elections this year as well as in the upcoming presidential cycle.
Lesson No. 1 from Tuesday night is that it is a good year to be conservative -- especially, but not exclusively -- if you are running as a Republican.
There is no single ‘tea party’ in the nation, but activists who claim that designation and its agenda of small government, opposition to Obama and fiscal conservatism won in several places. Tea party favorite Nikki Haley scored big in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary and faces what is expected to be an easy runoff for the nomination. Sharron Angle, another favorite, captured the GOP nomination to run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, in Nevada.
Elsewhere, tea party adherents did well. In Maine, Paul LePage, a career businessman, beat six rivals to win the GOP nomination for governor -- in a state whose two GOP senators are considered moderates. He, too, ran on a platform of small government and fiscal responsibility, a life raft in a swirling political sea with an anti-incumbent undertow. In Georgia, Tom Graves’ support from the Atlanta Tea Party Patriots helped him defeat another conservative in a runoff to fill a vacant GOP seat in the House.
The California and South Carolina results were a personal victory for Palin, who took a risk and successfully backed the female candidates. While Palin may decide it is more fun to be a major celebrity and king- (or in this case, queen-) maker, she picked up chits that could be cashed in any future race she chooses.
In New Jersey, Jon Runyan, formerly of the NFL, won the GOP nod for a House seat with the help of tea party supporters. But all was not roses for the tea party, as seven incumbent House members beat back challengers mainly from the right. In Virginia, Republican Rep. Rob Wittman handily defeated a tea party challenger.
Even the strong tea party victors face the political reality that they may need to soft-pedal their rhetoric to attract independents in the general election. That will be hard for some to do. Democrats, especially Reid, will point out loudly and often how some tea party positions can alienate possible voters. Rand Paul, the winner of the GOP Senate nomination in Kentucky last month, is the template that Democrats will use elsewhere.
Since his performance will be continually under attack, Obama will probably have to take a deeper role in the elections, either directly or through surrogates. Expect Democrats to push the argument that government needs to be large enough to be effective, especially in dealing with mega-problems like the economy and energy.
Obama also can claim a bit of a personal victory since he backed Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln in her renomination over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. The effort took some courage since Obama’s supporters included the unions who opposed Lincoln.
Unlike Republicans, Democrats have no tea party wing, but they do have a liberal wing that was rebuffed in the Lincoln victory. Unions strongly backed Halter, pouring people and money into the race to beat the incumbent, who opposed much of the union agenda. Lincoln showed that at least in some areas, a more conservative Democrat can still win her party’s nod, and that could mean problems in pushing any progressive agenda within the party.
It will also be interesting to see if the liberal elements can kiss and make up with Lincoln, who still faces a tough race to hold a seat that Republicans believe they can pick off.
If Obama can claim a victory, so too can former President Clinton, an ex-Arkansas governor, who campaigned strongly for Lincoln. The victory might even bury Clinton’s role in trying to get Rep. Joe Sestak out of the Democratic primary he won against Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, a White House favorite.
What were the other lessons from Tuesday night? Like life, money talks, and sex should probably best be left unspoken.
Billionaire Meg Whitman won the Republican nomination for California governor after spending more than $70 million of her own money. She overwhelmed state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, who spent $25 million in a losing effort.
Haley, of South Carolina, was accused of having affairs in a state still reeling from Gov. Mark Sanford’s admitted adultery. In Nevada, a messy divorce contributed to the rejection of Gov. Jim Gibbons, the only incumbent governor to lose a primary in this cycle.
If sex is bad, procreation is good, as in political dynasties.
Harry Reid’s son, Rory, won the Democratic nod for governor of Nevada. Paul Thurmond, a Charleston County councilman and son of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond, is in a runoff for an open congressional seat in South Carolina.
There was also a sense of déjà vu, sort of the political equivalent of the golden oldies. Jerry Brown won the Democratic Party’s nomination to run again for California governor, a post he held for two terms in the 1970s and 1980s. In Iowa, Terry Branstad will try to get his old job back as governor. He won the GOP nod for the post he held for four terms in the 1980s and 1990s.
--Michael Muskal
