Opinion: Close, but no cigarette tax.

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Will he do it? He wouldn’t do it. He wouldn’t dare.

But he did. This morning, President Bush shot down a bill that would pay for the insurance of millions of children whose families don’t qualify for Medicaid but can’t afford health insurance.

It shouldn’t be a surprise. In spite of the bill’s wide popular support and bipartisan approval, Bush had vowed to veto the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), which he and other Republicans have attempted to depict as a step toward socialized medicine — a claim the Times editorial board dismissed as absurd.

All the same, the president’s follow-through came as a shock. With such a successful, popular and worthy program on the line, wouldn’t the president, at the last moment, his pen poised over the paper, honor the finest traditions of theatrical politics and see the light?

Like his arguments against SCHIP, Bush’s stubbornness defies logic. He’s certainly got few backers—states support the program, key Republicans have backed the legislation, and insurance companies have spoken up for it enthusiastically. Democrats certainly mastered their spin on the conflict, bringing in children on SCHIP to speak for the program.

If Congress had passed SCHIP with a veto-proof majority, Bush’s threat wouldn’t have carried much weight. But while the Senate version of the bill garnered two-thirds approval, the House vote remained some two dozen votes short.

So now what? Some say the Dems will give it another go. Others think they might raise the stakes and roll a bunch of healthcare issues, from SCHIP to Medicare, into an omnibus bill. Democrats are certainly gearing up for a fight, launching a savvy ad campaign in key states, and working to secure the more votes from Democrats and Republicans.

Either way, it looks like this whole episode is escalating from a simple round of chicken to a more dangerous double-dare. And with less than four weeks left on a temporary extension of the program (which lapsed on Sept. 30), it’s anyone’s guess whether SCHIP will survive this political drudge match.

Bush is a man of his word. He said he wouldn’t sign the bill as it was, and lamentably, he made good on that promise. If he doesn’t make any bold statements before Congress sends a ‘new’ bill to his desk, perhaps this time he’ll be able to see reason.