Interpreting Tom Campbell’s exit

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Both of the remaining Republican candidates for governor are eagerly making the case that Tom Campbell’s exit from the race Thursday helped their cause. A private poll from Meg Whitman’s campaign shows that Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner would benefit about equally from Campbell’s departure. In Whitman’s own polling, a three-way race showed the former eBay CEO pulling 31% of Republican primary voters compared to 17% for Campbell and 5% for Poizner. In a head-to-head matchup, Whitman’s numbers show her with a 39-12 advantage over Poizner, with nearly half of those surveyed undecided. In the survey, Although her own numbers seem to indicate Campbell voters are split between the two candidates, Whitman’s campaign reasons otherwise. ‘Meg Whitman and Tom Campbell share the same geographic voter base, but with Tom Campbell’s departure for the U.S. Senate race, Meg Whitman becomes the natural attraction for Campbell voters,’ the memo states. Poizner’s campaign, meanwhile, sent out a memo today entitled, ‘The New Governor’s Race,’ in an effort to show Campbell’s departure would benefit the insurance commissioner. ‘Tom and Steve were both teachers, both were White House Fellows, both oversaw large state agencies, both have ties to Silicon Valley, and both are full of specific policy ideas to improve California,’ the memo reasoned.

-- Anthony York