The kids are all right, I swear

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

Many Angels fans are jumping off the ledge as we speak, claiming the team’s ongoing postseason collapse as, among other things, example numero uno that the organization can’t develop good young talent, can’t produce quality young hitters, and won’t soon again see the top of the division after various free agents walk at the end of the season. It’s all poppycock, of course.

While there’s no glossing over Howie Kendrick’s two-game, one-man goat show (consistent with, as mentioned here the other day, his history of coming back slowly from injury), to say that the Angels can’t develop good young players, including good young hitters, is not only to underestimate the talent on the field, but to miss the very foundation of the team’s construction and success over the last seven years, especially the last three. The Angels, even if they lose Sunday, have pulled off what few teams ever attempt: They’ve ushered in a youth movement while continuing to contend.

The nature of great teams is to grow old, expensive and, eventually, ineffective. When you make the playoffs year after year, the incentives are powerful to stick with the core guys who started all that winning in the first place, overpaying for their inevitable declines. Take the New York Yankees, who beginning in 1996 rode a marvelous young up-the-middle core of Derek Jeter (22), Jorge Posada (24), Mariano Rivera (26) and Bernie Williams (27) to four championships in five years, then watched them all grow old, paying more than $53 million for the privilege in 2005 alone.

The Yankees, just like the Angels, have made the playoffs four out of the last five years. Since the end of that first year (2004), the team has broken in a grand total of two regular, or semi-regular, position players (Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera) and just one regular starting pitcher (Chien-Ming Wang). The Angels during that time have broken in a whopping seven semi-regular players and three starting pitchers: In more or less chronological order of Ervin Santana, Maicer Izturis, Jered Weaver, Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, Casey Kotchman, Joe Saunders, Reggie Willits, Jeff Mathis and Erick Aybar. With better health, you could have added Dallas McPherson to that list. By the end of 2009 you’ll likely see the matriculation of Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales and, maybe, Sean Rodriguez. Oh, and Jose Arredondo has turned out decent so far.

How unusual is it for a perennial playoff team to cycle in that many new contributors? In the wild card era, it’s unprecedented. The Cleveland Indians of 1997-2001 introduced as many young starters as the Angels (Bartolo Colon, Jaret Wright and CC Sabathia), but two fewer position players. Ditto the Houston Astros over that same period. The Twins and Braves from 2002-2006 were long on new semi-regulars who contributed for a season or two (Lew Ford, Charles Thomas, Matt LeCroy, Nick Green, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Langerhans, Matt Diaz) and short on rotation help. The Cardinals over those same years broke in just two players of any lasting consequences, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Oakland from 2000-2004 introduced a new old-for-a-prospect regular second baseman every other year, along with frontline pitchers Barry Zito and Rich Harden. And the current Boston Red Sox have produced just six regulars and starters, though most of them have already made the All-Star team.

The Angels younguns aren’t just cheap, they’re pretty good. Consider that the catching tandem of Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis combined for 29 home runs, 92 RBIs and 66 walks this year. No other American League team received as many as 23 homers from its catching spot; only one had more RBIs (the Minnesota Twins and Joe Mauer), and only two had more walks (Twins and Red Sox).

Injuries have hobbled their counting stats, and the first two games of the Boston series have dulled any enthusiasm for talking about the Angels youth, but the fact remains that on a per-at bat or per-inning basis, the new generation is already becoming among the league’s best. Baseball analyst Bill James invented a terrific new global stat called Win Shares a few years back (basically, multiply a team’s wins by three, and divide the result among the deserving player according to a thousand complicated formulae). The good folks at The Hardball Times then tinkered with the formula, and came up with a ‘Win Shares Percentage’ to express results against playing time. Long story short, Mike Napoli by that measure comes in second this year among all semi-regular AL catchers (behind Mauer and ahead of All-Star Dioner Navarro); Howie Kendrick came in second at 2B behind Texas’ Ian Kinsler and ahead of MVP candidate Dustin Pedroia; Erick Aybar came in second at shortstop behind Mike Aviles and just ahead of ... Macier Izturis! Saunders and Santana finished third and fifth, respectively, in pitcher Win Shares; fifth and eight in WS percentage. Even old Casey Kotchman, considered by many as a semi-disappointment before being traded for Mark Teixeira, came in a respectable sixth place at 1B (Tex stomped all comers in his two-month season). They’ll all need to stay healthy to really prove it, but they’re good.

None of this makes it any more likely that the Angels can pull respectability out of the jaws of ignominy at Fenway these next couple of days, but it does suggest that a core is in place to keep contending for years to come. Young players, though they break your heart, do a couple of useful things for those managers with enough nerve to trust them: They keep a chunk of payroll low and predictable, they use their superior athleticism to play much better defense than you think, and above all they get better. Position players peak most often at ages 26 or 27. In 2011, Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez will be 26; Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar 27; Jeff Mathis and Kendry Morales 28. Meanwhile, the team’s excellent rotation this year featured not a single start from anyone in their 30s.

It remains a great time to be an Angels fan, particularly for those of us old enough to remember when whining about a Red Sox playoff whupping was the highlight of a decade, or more.

-- Matt Welch