Opinion: The immigration vote

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It’s intriguing to note that in today’s Senate vote derailing the immigration bill, a solid majority of lawmakers whose seats are up for reelection next year favored sending the measure into oblivion.

There are 34 such senators; among them, fully 24 voted against ending debate on the bill (thus blocking its progress), while nine supported moving toward a final showdown on it. The one who didn’t vote, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.) is still recovering from a stroke.

Most, if not all, of these senators would have voted the same position, regardless of their term situation. Still, having to face the voters not too long after confronting an especially contentious issue does have a way of sharpening one’s focus.

Aside from Johnson, of the 11 Democrats up for reelection next year, six voted to keep the bill alive --- all seem shoo-ins for another term. The five Democrats who voted to waylay the measure include the two generally viewed as their party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbents on the ’08 ballot: Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Pryor of Arkansas.

Of the 22 Republicans holding seats coming up for reelection, 19 voted to sidetrack the bill. These included several seen as potentially endangered: Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Susan Collins of Maine, Gordon Smith of Oregon and John Sununu of New Hampshire.

Among the three Republicans voting to keep the measure from twisting in the wind, Larry Craig of Idaho has few political worries as he heads into next year’s campaign. But analysts will be closely watching how their position plays out for Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

Graham was once a hero to many conservative activists, given his active role as a House member in pushing for the 1998 impeachment of President Clinton. He parlayed that into his Senate job. But his vocal advocacy of the immigration bill, and dismissive comments about some of its critics, have enraged many on the right. Movements are underway to try to field a well-funded primary challenger against him.

Hagel, with his vote, simply confirmed the maverick status he has carved out for himself. His increasingly intense opposition to the Iraq war already has sparked the Republican attorney general in Nebraska to launch a primary bid against him.

-- Don Frederick