Opinion: New New Hampshire numbers
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Yes, it’s still way early, but it’s the state polls you want to watch even now. And Mitt Romney and Barack Obama got good news today from a new CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
From June to July, Romney moved from 28% to 33%, Rudy Giuliani slipped from 20% to 18%, candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson went from 11% to 13%, while poor John McCain, who was at 29% in April, fell to 20% in June and is at 12% now. (And 66% of independents, who gave the Arizonan his upset in 2000, say they’ll vote in the Democratic primary.)
Newt Gingrich gets 3%, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul get 2% each.
Romney shows no real weakness and widespread support, especially among those worried over illegal immigration. Giuliani does best among the non-religious and Thompson best among Bush supporters.
But--and here’s the catch--only 7% of likely GOP voters say they’ve firmly decided their choice, 22% lean toward one candidate and fully 71% say they’re still deciding.
As for the Democrats...
Hillary Clinton, who’s led her party’s field for more than two years, slipped but still leads with 33% while Barack Obama has improved to 25% to close the gap from 14 points to 8. Bill Richardson remains in third with a steady 10% while John Edwards has plummeted from 21% in April to 12% in June and 8% now, the same as still-undeclared Al Gore.
Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich both have 3%.
But there’s still a lot of room--and time--before the primary. Only 10% of likely Democratic voters have firmly made up their minds, 26% are leaning toward one candidate and 64% are still thinking.
Fully 47% believe Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican candidate while only 17% believe Obama does.
Republicans think Giuliani (30%) or Romney (29%) have the best chance of defeating the Democratic candidate. Only 10% say that about Fred Thompson.
One-time frontrunner and New Hampshire favorite McCain is in the most difficult position with 38% of Republicans saying they would not vote for him, 30% feel that way about Thompson and 22% about Giuliani. Showing the breadth of his support, only 17% would not vote for Romney.
On the Democratic side, 16% would never vote for Clinton, 15% would never vote for Obama and 24% would not vote for Edwards.
For the University’s Democratic survey, click here. For the Republican survey, click here.
--Andrew Malcolm