Opinion: Parsing the polls

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Hillary Clinton and her aides rightfully are pleased today with a new national poll showing her extending her lead in the Democratic presidential race to the point where she’s almost lapping the field. But they also are experienced enough not to get too excited.

As we noted last week -- and strongly reiterate -- national polls at this stage in the White House contest can be illusory. They show trends and underscore general perceptions about a candidate. But they also reflect the attitudes of lots of voters who are only vaguely paying attention to the campaign and whose allegiance remains malleable. The polls that matter more are those in the states that kick off the nomination process: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And surveys in those states indicate a far more competitive Democratic race than suggested by the latest national figures.

The new USA Today/Gallup Poll gives Clinton a 22-point advantage over Barack Obama, 48% to 26%, among Democratic-leaning voters, with John Edwards a distant third at 12%. Clinton’s number is impressive; it shows, as her strategist, Mark Penn, put it, that more and more Americans ‘are seeing her as the one ready to be president.’ Her margin over Obama also is nearly double her lead in the same poll in mid-July, which may be evidence that their recent spats over foreign policy have worked to her advantage.

But an aggregate of the three most recent polls of likely Democratic voters in Iowa, which can be found at the RealClear Politics site, shows Clinton and Edwards in a virtual tie for first place, with Obama close behind. Similarly ...

... aggregates of surveys in New Hampshire and South Carolina show tight races between Clinton and Obama; she leads but not by much.

To buttress our caution about the relevance of national poll results in the summer before the voting starts in a presidential campaign, we went into the archives. We found that back in July 1983, a Gallup Poll showed Walter Mondale far ahead of his rivals for the ’84 Democratic nomination. He was favored by 41% of respondents; running second was John Glenn, with 25%. Mondale, of course, struggled mightily to claim his party’s nod. He barely overcame a spirited challenge from Gary Hart, who barely registered in that summer’s survey, while Glenn faded badly.

The news certainly wasn’t all good today for camp Clinton. As the Democratic candidates prepared to gather for a quizzing this evening at the AFL-CIO convention in Chicago, The Times’ Peter Nicholas reports on the labor-related controversy surrounding the aforementioned Penn. Clinton most assuredly will need to address the matter at the union-sponsored forum, and how her presumed defense of him plays with the audience will be worth watching.

And Newsday’s Glenn Thrush found that Clinton was far from the favorite daughter in the Chicago suburb where she ‘grew up a pugnacious, precocious and uncommonly well-read tomboy. You can read his piece here.

The new Gallup Poll also tested the Republican race, and to an even greater degree than among the Democrats, the results signify less than meets the eye.

Rudy Giuliani is ahead, at 33%, followed by the as-yet-unannounced Fred Thompson (21%) and John McCain (16%). Running a distant fourth, with 8%, is the fellow leading in surveys of GOP-leaning voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney.

Much more in line with the political world’s view of Romney’s prospects is a column today by E.J. Dionne Jr. of the Washington Post that details the momentum the former Massachusetts governor appears to be building. Dionne asserts: ‘Romney has the most comprehensive strategy not only to win the Republican presidential nomination but also to position himself for next year’s election.’

-- Don Frederick