Opinion: The poll watch, part II

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There was a slight bit of positive news for the White House in the new USA Today/Gallup Poll (and we emphasize ‘slight’). President Bush‘sapproval/disapproval numbers still are poor -- and, if historical trends hold, would presage a wipeout for his party in November of next year -- but at least they’re heading north instead of south.

The survey, conducted between Friday and Sunday, found that 34% approve of the job Bush is doing while 62% don’t. Almost exactly a month ago, those numbers stood at 29% approve, 66% disapprove. The margin of error for both samplings was plus-or-minus 3 percentage points, so theoretically his standing could have been a little better in early July and a bit worse now -- meaning they would be roughly the same. But the mathematical probability remains that there’s been an ever-so-small improvement.

The change in the disapproval number allows Bush to avoid, for the moment, some gloomy historical parallels. As we noted previously, the 66% Bush registered had tied him with the worst figure posted by President Nixon in a Gallup Poll and was just one point shy of the worst figure the survey ever recorded -- the 67% disapproval rating for President Truman in early 1952 (a time when an unpopular war, this one in Korea, was dragging on).

If for no other reason than their own political skins, his fellow Republicans in Washington are rooting hard for Bush to reduce his disapproval figure. As we also noted in another item, past voting patterns have shown that an overwhelming share of those with a negative view of an outgoing, two-term president vote against the incumbent’s party. Thus, the bigger the president’s disapproval rating, the deeper the hole his party has to dig out of.

The new poll also asked about attitudes toward Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and the GOP can find little to cheer about in the findings. The Democrats, ascendant on Capitol Hill after 12 years of more or less total Republican control, didn’t score all that well: 55% disapprove of their performance, 37% approve. But the GOP is held in less regard: Its negative rating from voters is 64%, its positive rating 29%.

-- Don Frederick