Opinion: About that New Hampshire primary
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It’s beginning to look a lot less like Christmas. The Manchester Union-Leader reports that New Hampshire is now leaning toward an early January primary date, probably Jan. 8, due in part to changes in Iowa and a possible decision by Michigan Democrats to stick with their Jan. 15 primary (along with the Republicans) instead of an earlier caucus -- even though half the candidates aren’t on the ballot.
So, for those of you marking your calendars at home -- and we do hope you’re using pencil, lightly -- it looks like Jan. 3 for the Iowa caucuses, Jan. 8 for the New Hampshire primary, Jan. 19 for Nevada and South Carolina Republicans, with that state’s Democrats possibly moving to the same date from Jan. 26. Then there are the interlopers: Wyoming Republicans on Jan. 5, Michigan on Jan. 15 and Florida on Jan. 29.
Amid all that flux, what seems more and more certain is that despite efforts by the national parties to make the early states more inclusive and broadly representative of the nation, the opening narrative of the nomination voting will still likely be set by Iowa and New Hampshire.
But Nevada’s relevance could move up a notch or two if Iowa and New Hampshire have different winners, casting Nevada as something of an early tie-breaker.
What hangs in the balance is the analysts’ consensus of who is waxing and waning going into Feb. 5, when the sheer number of states up for grabs -- California, Illinois and New York among them -- means the candidates will likely have their images and messages cast by the free media coverage, since few can afford to mount ad campaigns in all 20 or so states making decisions that day.
And you think predicting the winner of ‘Dancing With the Stars’ is hard. Remember, four years ago at this time speculation was building that Howard Dean could be the next president of the United States.
And we all know how that turned out.
-- Scott Martelle
