Opinion: Is a bad economy good for Mitt Romney?
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LAS VEGAS -- This feels sort of like those Wall Street guys who sell stocks short, then make a mint when the company -- or the economy -- tumbles. The folks over at Time magazine are wondering whether economic uncertainty, and fears of a recession, might salvage Mitt Romney’s presidential bid.
In the first two major nominating contests, the Michigan native and former Massachusetts governor who made a mint as a venture capitalist kept winning the silver, as he put it, coming in second to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and to John McCain in New Hampshire.
Then came Michigan, where eight years of hemorrhaging jobs have led to a 7.4% unemployment rate, and Romney got his first significant gold. While many ascribed that to his roots in Michigan -- his father was a popular governor there in the 1960s -- his campaign in the state focused on the economy. Not all economists were impressed with his message, but enough Michigan Republicans were.
As economic fears spread -- tumbling shares on Wall Street both reflect and exacerbate that -- the economy has seized even more of the political stage for both the Democrats and the Republicans. In Michigan, exit polls showed that among Republicans concerned about the economy, Romney was the clear victor.
That won’t help Romney in South Carolina, where evangelicals hold the key, but it could help him here in Nevada -- and likely explains why he’s campaigning here among the gamblers rather than down South among the palmettos. (Word is the Las Vegas Review-Journal will release a poll tomorrow showing Romney with a big lead in Nevada.)
With Feb. 5 looming, the national polls in flux and all campaigns subject to the winds of narrative -- has McCain peaked? Did Giuliani’s Feb. 5 strategy leave him out of the race too long? -- economic fears and a CEO’s resume could help Romney.
But then, a turnaround on Wall Street and more suicide bombers in Iraq over the next two weeks could change everything.
-- Scott Martelle
