Opinion: Republican lead on generic congressional ballot grows to 7 points, largest yet this year, Gallup reports


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A new Gallup Poll out this morning finds Republicans have moved to their largest lead of the year yet, with fully half of registered voters saying they favor the GOP candidate on the generic congressional ballot.

Gallup says the new results (50-43, with Republicans gaining another point in the last week) indicate the GOP has snuffed a brief period of Democrat momentum last month. Gallup’s polling occurred Aug. 9-15, so it would include early reactions to the Democrat’s announced support for building a mosque near ground zero in New York City.


Gallup warns that the party of a president with less than 50% approval “tends to suffer heavy seat losses in midterm elections,” which come Nov. 2.

The Republican surge coincides with Obama’s newest low weekly job approval rating of 44% and is attributed in part to growth of support among independents.

Not that the White House pays attention to such gloomy statistical snapshots. The president today continues his five-state political collection tour, having raised a million dollars -- and commuter tempers -- in Los Angeles Monday evening. Earlier he raised money in Milwaukee.

Obama now heads to Seattle, Florida and Ohio before his next vacation.

“Republicans,” Gallup notes, “typically turn out to vote in greater numbers than Democrats do. So their current seven-point advantage among all registered voters could represent the lower bound of the margin they could expect to win by (in the national two-party vote) if the elections were held today.”

Additionally, Republicans maintain a significantly higher enthusiasm about voting this year vs Democrats -- 44-28, according to Gallup.

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-- Andrew Malcolm

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