Opinion: Guest writer John Phillips: For Republicans in 2012, it’s Sarah Palin or another big fat <strong>L</strong>
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Palin for Prez?
Somebody asked me the other day who the Republicans should plop atop their presidential ticket next year. And I said, Sarah Palin.
Before you look at your computer the same way you looked at the television when Charlie Sheen enlightened you on the meaning of ‘Winning’ and ‘tiger blood,’ hear me out.
I was put under the gun (if you’re still allowed to use that phrase) on Sean Hannity’s Great American Panel on the Fox News Channel. Upon further reflection, I think I’m more right today than I was when I spontaneously cheer-leaded for the former Alaska governor on national television.
Here’s the theory:
The incumbent President, in virtually all cases, is a heavy favorite for reelection.
In the last 80 years, only two democratically elected U.S. presidents have been....
...defeated for a second term –- Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, each man faced a strong challenge in the primary, Sen. Ted Kennedy for Carter and televangelist Pat Robertson for Bush. (Yeh, yeh, I know; 1992 was the other Pat, Pat Buchanan.) And also both had credible third party challengers in the general election, John Anderson in 1980 and H. Ross Perot in 1992.
There is no indication that any disaffected Democrat is plotting a run against President Obama in the primary. And we’re even less likely to see a credible third party challenger in November next year.
While it’s true that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg keeps mumbling about mounting a third party billionaire’s bid, he’s not tall enough to ride the ride.
This being the scenario, the Republicans have zero chance of winning the 2012 presidential election themselves.
For the GOP to win, Obama needs to lose.
Gas needs to be at $6.00 a gallon. Unemployment needs to be over 10% and climbing. Vice President Joe Biden needs to be replaced on the ticket with Snooki. The country needs to be going to hell at 100 mph on very expensive gasoline -- and foreign tires.
If Obama loses, it almost doesn’t matter who the Republicans nominate -- they will win.
So, if that’s your road map for victory, why not nominate someone who will deliver exactly what you want?
When Starbucks screws up your order and gives you a coupon for a free drink, you don’t go for the plain tall, non-fat extra hot latte. You splurge on the venti caramel macchiato with an extra espresso shot. Hell, you might even make it Irish.
When you have a free pass, you can splurge. In fact, you’re crazy not to.
If Obama blows it, the GOP can splurge.
This is the Republican Party’s best shot at sneaking in an actual true blue authentic conservative, who can take on all of Washington’s sacred cows and then become the most vilified person in the country.
The man for that job is Sarah Palin.
Would a President Huckabee put his office and popularity on the line to take on the highly unpopular, yet urgently necessary issue of entitlement reform? Not likely.
Could you see a President Romney taking the risk of being vilified as a xenophobic racist by demanding an enforcement first approach to illegal immigration? No way, Jose.
How about a President Mitch Daniels going up to Alaska and drilling for oil like a crazed dentist? Good luck.
Sarah Palin? Check. Check. Check.
Is there a chance she’d get blown out in one of the most lop-sided shellackings in electoral history?
Maybe even a strong chance.
But if your strategy is to settle for a candidate who will lose with dignity, well, then that’s the outcome you’re sure to get.
-- John Phillips
Strangely enough, a man named John Phillips hosts “The John Phillips Show” on Talk Radio 790 KABC in Los Angeles, which can be heard weeknights from 6 to 10 p.m. Pacific. Outside Southern California, his show is available live online at KABC.com Also follow Phillips on Twitter @JohnnyDontLike
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