Who’s gonna get Pac-5’s at-large playoff berth?
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Talking to Eric Tweit, athletic director at Newport Harbor, Thursday night on the sidelines of Edison’s developing 47-0 Sunset League victory over the Sailors.
He asked a question that has been asked of me a few times, and it always seems like it’s asked in kinda hushed tones. Who’s gonna get the at-large playoff berth in the Pac-5 Division? But really, the way the question comes out, is ‘Will they take Santa Margarita over Team X?’
If the South Coast and Moore leagues play out like most expect, it won’t matter; the at-large berths will not be coming from those leagues.
If the Sunset League plays out like most expect, Team X is going to be fourth-place Los Alamitos (7-3). The politically correct thing for the Southern Section to do would be to take Los Al by virtue of its strong heritage and having a better record than Santa Margarita (5-4) from the Trinity League. But here’s the thing: Santa Margarita played a tougher nonleague schedule, nearly beat St. Bonaventure if not for a miracle finish, and defeated Fountain Valley from the Sunset League, 38-14. Los Alamitos beat FV, 13-3.
If the Serra League plays out like most expect, Team X is going to be third-place Loyola (5-5). This is really tricky, because there’s no clearly defined winner. Loyola has the tougher schedule. Even excluding the 55-14 loss to Concord De La Salle, which is currently ranked No. 1 in the state, Loyola’s average margin of defeat is 16.5 points; Santa Margarita’s is 12.5. Had Loyola scored one more touchdown in each of its losses, it would still be 5-5; had Santa Margarita scored one more touchdown, it would by 7-2.
Loyola has been outscored, 207-140; Santa Margarita has outscored opponents, 240-141 (and 178-141 if you don’t include the 62-0 victory over JSerra). Maybe it’s six of one and half-dozen of the other; then again, maybe it’s a case of what have you done for me lately: Loyola won the Division I title a few years ago, and last season Santa Margarita reached the semifinals while Loyola failed to make the playoffs.
My colleague, Eric Sondheimer, projected Loyola as the at-large team based on the Section’s five criteria.
Applying those criteria specifically to Loyola and Santa Margarita: Santa Margarita has the edge for record and league strength (a combined two points) and Loyola has the edge for strength of schedule (two points).
If they have to delve deeper, I think the edge is Santa Margarita’s.
-- Martin Henderson