Coach breaks down the Southwest Division

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Coach Roddy Layton, whose Diamond Ranch team was left out of the playoffs because of some paperwork snafu with a transfer, has agreed to offer his take on the Southwest Divison playoffs. So I challenged him to a prognostication battle.

This week is the division’s quarterfinal round, and just like last week, Coach Layton and I agree in all but one game. (By the way, I was right in the one game we disagreed about last week -- waytogo El Toro -- giving me a one-game edge in the series).

Here’s what we think this week:

Coach Layton’s picks: El Dorado to beat El Toro; Charter Oak over West Covina; Trabuco Hills over Wilson and South Hills over Foothill.

My picks: The same, except I’m picking Foothill over South Hills.

Neither of us is completely sold on our decisions. One minute we like Foothill and the next we like South Hills. It’s back and forth and it’s one of those game that might come down to whoever has the ball last.

Below are the coach’s detailed looks at each of the Southwest quarterfinal games. And If you can’t get enough of Roddy on this blog, you can also catch him on SportsceneTV.net, a Diamond Ranch-based online high schools sports show.

-- Jaime Cardenas

From Coach Layton:

The Southwest Division is now begging to heat up! Maybe it’s just the Foothill vs. South Hills game that has me excited ... but I can’t wait for Friday Night!

Here are my predictions for this week and understand that sometimes I can be a San Gabriel Valley Homer.

El Dorado (10-1) will beat El Toro (6-5)

Last year El Dorado beat El Toro in the playoffs, 31-7. Even though it was a year ago, that game will still be fresh on players and coaches’ minds. This is a slight mental advantage for the Golden Hawks (not like they need any extra help). Chargers’ running back Jai Morris has put up great numbers this season, but El Dorado’s defense is only giving up 8 points a game on average. The Golden Hawks are 24-2 in the last two seasons and their coaching staff were at Diamond Ranch games early this season doing their jobs scouting teams for playoffs. So I’m sure they have a great game plan for El Toro and the rest of their opponents through the CIF Championship.

Charter Oak (9-1-1) will beat West Covina (6-5)...again

Earlier in the season West Covina loss to Charter Oak, 55-28. This is a good local game for the San Gabriel Valley, and the outcome could be a lot closer, but the victor will be the same. West Covina has improved since their first match up, but, unfortunately for Bulldog fan, so have the Chargers. West Covina has given up on average 26 points a game, while at the same time has scored on average 27 points. Charter Oak, however, has beaten opponents by an average of 20 points. More impressive than that is the fact the Chargers are averaging 45 points per game and are only allowing 13 points per game in their last six games.

Trabuco Hills (10-1) will beat Wilson (6-5)

As a Miramonte League coach I hope I’m wrong, again, but I think the Wildcats will lose. Running back Tim Gilmore is a talented RB and should be considered for the All San Gabriel Valley Team, but can he and his Wildcats pull off back-to-back upsets? Trabuco Hills beat a good South Hills team early in the season and has playoff experience. In the last three games they are averaging 42 points and are only giving up six. Twelve different players have scored and they have a 1,000-yard rusher in Matt Wagner. I like the way Wilson Coach Robert Oviedo put Gilmore in situations to make big play, and I would love for him to have a big game and open up the discussions about SGV Player of the Year, but, unfortunately, I think the Cinderella story ends this week. Good luck Wildcats!

South Hills (9-2) to beat Foothill (9-2)

On SportsceneTV, I picked South Hills, but I’m worried about this selection. At 6-foot, 215 pounds, Knights running back Mike Camacho has rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 17 touchdowns this season. Last week he had 254 yards and four touchdowns. Quarterback Chad Miller (6-foot-6, 190) is also a threat to run as well and has more than 700 yards to go with 14 touchdowns. South Hills is riding a nine game win streak, and a five-game home win streak, heading into this game. South Hills lost two game early in the season, a close one to Trabuco Hills and a not so close one to La Habra, but the Huskies were out of sync back then. They’ve since found their rhythm and have yet to lose. Both teams are (9-2) with talented players, obviously, so what advantage does South Hills have? Turnover ratio, the Huskies are +19. And they’ll be in front of their home crowd. I was concerned with the South Hills rush defense, but I will remain true. I’m not 100% sold on my pick, but I’m going to with SGV loyalty.

-- Image from www3.freeze.com