Wishing and Dreaming

Times correspondent Doyle McManus reported last week that the Reagan Administration would once again try to persuade Congress to renew aid to Nicaragua’s contra rebels. A White House aide told him that that while no strategy had yet been prepared for the campaign, President Reagan would “make whatever effort is required” to see that it was successful.

That official must be engaged in wishful thinking. If Reagan takes a close look at the risks that he will be running with an all-out effort on behalf of the anti-Sandinista rebels on whom his government has already spent $73 million, he will realize that it is doomed to fail.

The campaign of persuasion could easily run aground on Capitol Hill. There are enough Republicans as well as Democrats there who are dubious about the Administration’s strategy in Central America, even if they are no fans of the Sandinistas, to vote down further aid for the contras. If a major effort to renew aid failed, it could have negative effects on future negotiations between the United States and Nicaragua. Reagan’s chief envoy to Central America, Harry W. Shlaudemann, already has few enough cards to play in negotiating an accord with Nicaragua. A repudiation of the contras by Congress would weaken his hand even further.

Even if Reagan were to wrest more money for the contras from Congress, their war is failing where it counts most--in Nicaragua itself. The contras do not have the popular support to overthrow the Sandinistas, and are unlikely to build enough support anytime soon. All that the contras do is cause trouble for the Sandinistas, embittering them and many other Nicaraguans toward the United States--and giving the most radical Sandinistas an excuse for being even more dictatorial than they already are.

The newly elected government of Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega is going to be in power for the duration of Reagan’s term in office, and possibly longer, whether Reagan likes it or not. So the White House should abandon its futile strategy of pressuring the Sandinistas through covert war, and instead work harder to reach a diplomatic understanding with the Nicaraguans.

Bilateral talks are not the only place where such an agreement can be worked out. Equally important is the effort by our Latin America allies in the Contadora Group--Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Panama--to get Nicaragua to sign a peace treaty with its neighbors in Central America. A Contadora treaty would achieve many of the same things that Reagan says he wants from Nicaragua, including an end to the Sandinistas’ military buildup and their interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Reagan must look to the Contadora Group, not to the contras , for a future strategy toward Nicaragua .