More Jobs, Fewer Courses Cited in Study of Community College Enrollment Drop

The “surprising and alarming” enrollment decreases in community colleges over the last two years cannot be blamed on fewer high school graduates or on the theory that more young people are going directly to four-year universities, a new state study concludes.

The study, released over the weekend by the California Post-secondary Education Commission, says that an improved economy, which has meant more full-time job openings for high school graduates, may be a major reason for decreased community college enrollment, but also notes that state budget cuts by Gov. George Deukmejian and the Legislature led to much of the downward spiral at community colleges.

The 1983 budget cuts necessitated cutting courses at most community colleges, and that in turn led to fewer students enrolling, the report says.

Decrease 6 Times Greater

The report found that the decrease in the number of community college students statewide was six times greater than the drop in the number of high school graduates.

The study also found that only a slightly larger number of high school graduates went directly to four-year colleges than in the past.

” . . . The vast majority of recent high school graduates who did not attend a community college . . . failed to attend any other school, college or university,” said the study. The report added that the decrease in the number of people going on for advanced education has serious implications for the state.

All seven of Orange County’s community colleges had enrollment drops in the fall semesters of both 1983 and 1984. This semester, six of the seven colleges are still showing decreases over a year ago. Only Saddleback College, with campuses in Irvine and Mission Viejo, has started showing enrollment growth again.

The commission’s study analyzed the 1983 fall enrollment decline in state community colleges. While the study did not analyze the decreases of last fall, it noted that most community colleges this year experienced declines of as much or more than a year ago.

Fewer High School Graduates

Many Orange County community college officials have cited fewer high school graduates--reflecting a downward trend in birth rates that began 18 years ago--as being a prime reason for fewer community college students now.

But the commission’s study noted: “Between 1982 and 1983, the number of California high school graduates declined only 1.4% --from 265,924 to 262,160--in contrast to the 8.4% drop in community college enrollments.”

The commission similarly put to rest a claim that more high school graduates were simply bypassing community colleges and going directly to four-year institutions.

While the University of California’s nine campuses, including UC Irvine, grew in the 1983 fall semester, those UC increases statewide “involved only 1,700 additional new freshmen, in contrast to the drop of 15,500 first-time freshmen at the community colleges,” the report noted.

‘Flight to Quality’

There was no increase in the percentage of new high school graduates enrolling directly at the 19 campuses of California State University, including Cal State Fullerton, the report said. The CSU campuses statewide drew 9% of the state’s new high school graduates both in the fall of 1982 and the fall of 1983.

David Gardner, president of the University of California, last year theorized that more students were bypassing community colleges because they were going directly to four-year institutions. Gardner coined a term--”a flight to quality” --to explain the alleged phenomenon.

But the commission’s study dismissed the notion. The high school graduates simply weren’t going to college at all, the commission found.

The commission said that statewide, there was a drop in community college enrollment in 1983 by every ethnic group except Asians. The decrease in the number of black and Hispanic students at community colleges is particularly alarming, the report said.

Decline Began in ’83

“In fact,” said the report, “the sharp drop in Hispanic and black enrollment in fall 1984, which many have attributed to the first-time imposition of (tuition) fees, actually began a year earlier, in fall 1983, when the community colleges lost a total of 23,934 Hispanic students and 10,685 black students.”

The result of the community college drops in the past two years will soon affect the state’s four-year institutions, the report said.

“As a result (of the declines), there are now substantially fewer community college students available for transfer to the University of California, the California State University and independent institutions,” said the report. The study added that UC and CSU may see a significant drop in upper-division (junior and senior) transfer students as soon as next fall.