Trouble for Mitterrand

Impressive conservative victories in local French elections this month confirm what opinion polls have been saying: President Francois Mitterrand and his Socialist government are in trouble. Unless the Socialists can turn things around before the National Assembly elections a year from now, France will face the prospect of a government split between a Socialist president and a parliament dominated by the right.

Considering the effective and constructive role that Mitterrand has played both within Europe and in the Atlantic alliance since his election four years ago, such a prospect is troubling not just for France but for its allies as well.

Mitterrand, during the early months of his presidency, enjoyed popularity ratings as high as 64%. Judging by the polls and last week’s election results, confidence in his leadership is only half that now. In both the first- and second-round elections to local councils, various conservative parties got well over 50% of the vote.

Viewed from here, Mitterrand’s declining popularity is a bit puzzling. On the positive side, he has presided over the near collapse of the Communist Party. He has reduced the inflation rate to under 7%--the best showing since 1971. He has put bloated nationalized industries on short rations, gone all out to promote development of high-tech industries and generally improved France’s competitive position in the world. He has also initiated a historically unprecedented but very healthy decentralization of government.

Mitterrand’s presidency has been marked by a welcome absence of Gaullist-style nationalistposturing, and a very real move toward more cooperative relations with France’s Common Market partners. France has become a pillar of strength, politically and otherwise, within the Atlantic alliance.

None of this, however, impressed right-wing voters, who have disliked him from the start.The Communists are hostile for obvious reasons. And many of Mitterrand’s own Socialists are disillusioned by his pragmatic decision to abandon Socialist goals that simply were not appropriate for the 1980s. A high and rising unemployment rate of 10% and a sluggish economic growth rate have provided convenient targets for his enemies on both the left and the right.

Mitterrand is toying with an election reform that would make next year’s parliamentary elections subject to a proportional-representation rule. Such a change would help the Socialists, but would also give the racist, right-wing National Front an influential voice in the National Assembly.

On the economic side, Mitterrand may be tempted to abandon unpopular but appropriate austerity measures in order to build public support. Such a course, however, could reignite inflation and make French industry less competitive in world trade--with negative long-run effects on employment and prosperity generally. That would be unfortunate. But the conservative opposition probably would not behave much differently.

French elections are the business of the French --period. But from the U.S. perspective there is no question that Mitterrand has been a good president and deserves better than he is getting.