Reagan MX Success Seen Hurting Other Arms Requests

President Reagan’s hard-fought battle for the MX missile could backfire later this year, making it even harder for him to win congressional approval for other elements of his defense program, strategists in both parties said Wednesday.

“The President had a good running start for the MX vote, but the next defense issues will be like high hurdles--much tougher,” said a Senate GOP aide who asked not to be identified. “He’s kind of used up his defense chits.”

Military aid for Nicaraguan rebels, funds for “Star Wars,” the $286-billion defense spending request for fiscal 1986 and future MX funds--all those items on the congressional agenda are expected to meet with more resistance as a result of Reagan’s expected victory when the House casts its final vote today on the release of $1.5 billion for an additional 21 missiles to be produced in the current fiscal year.

Victory Margins Slim

Democratic leaders were quick to note that, even though the President mounted perhaps the most extensive lobbying effort of his presidency for the MX, his victory margins in both the Senate and the House have been slim. The initial House vote on Tuesday was 219 to 213 in favor of the MX; the Senate approved the funding, 55 to 45, last week.

“With everything going for them, the President should have rolled up more votes,” said Christopher Matthews, a spokesman for House Speaker Thomas P. (Tip) O’Neill Jr. (D-Mass.).

But the President’s supporters noted that his MX success comes on top of a virtually unbroken record of legislative victories on defense issues. Not only has Congress permitted Reagan to carry out a substantial military buildup over the past four years, but the President has also won several big showdowns, including revival of the B-1 bomber and the sale of AWACS radar surveillance aircraft to Saudi Arabia.

“There’s no substitute for success,” former White House lobbyist Ken Duberstein said.

At the same time, some Republicans, as well as many Democrats, acknowledged that the attitude of Congress toward the Administration’s defense buildup is changing. They predicted that Reagan’s lobbying will be less effective next time. As Rep. Jim Courter (R-N.J.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said: “You can’t go to the well quite so deeply every time.”

‘Spending His Capital’

“The President is spending his capital on this issue (MX), and thus his ability to control congressional voting on these other defense issues will be lessened,” said Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), a leading MX opponent.

The next defense-related issue facing Congress is expected to be the President’s request for $14 million in aid to the rightist rebels, known as contras, who are fighting the Nicaraguan government. Congress voted last year to halt such aid and congressional leaders have predicted that it will be defeated again this spring.

“The people who bent over to give Ronald Reagan a victory on this one are going to be less likely to do the same for contra aid,” a House Democratic source said.

Likewise, Reagan’s request for an additional 48 MX missiles to be manufactured in fiscal 1986, likely to come to a vote before summer, is considered to be in jeopardy. “Kiss it goodby,” an Administration lobbyist said.

“If the Administration thinks it’s going to get another 48 missiles in one lump sum in fiscal 1986, they had better think again because it just ain’t going to happen,” said Rep. William L. Dickinson of Alabama, ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee.

Pressure on Aspin

One important factor working against Reagan on the future MX votes is the tremendous pressure mounting on House Armed Services Committee Chairman Les Aspin (D-Wis.) to oppose funds the next time. Aspin, who broke with the House Democratic leadership and supported the Administration’s current request, controls a key bloc of about 20 Democratic votes and is believed to favor an MX phase-out in 1986.

Ultimately, the President wants to produce 223 missiles and deploy 100 of them by 1989, with the rest as backups. On top of the 21 missiles expected to get their final congressional blessing today, Congress already has approved 21 weapons.

Risks Cutbacks

Congressional leaders said also that, because of Reagan’s current success on the MX, he risks having other major weapons systems cut or eliminated by Congress when it votes later this year on the overall Pentagon budget for 1986.

“It’s a fact that Congress will set a ceiling on the increase in defense spending, probably at 3% real growth,” said Rep. Charles E. Bennett (D-Fla.), an Armed Services Committee member. “Since it can’t be cut from the MX program, it’s going to be cut from something else--perhaps even the Trident submarine program.”