Crime Declined 4.5% in 1984, Survey Shows

Crime in the United States declined 4.5% in 1984, according to a preliminary survey released Sunday by the Justice Department’s bureau of justice statistics. But some violent crimes increased, with the biggest jump occurring in rape cases.

The study, based on interviews with a representative national sample of 125,000 individuals, estimated that 35.3 million crimes were committed in the nation last year, contrasted with 37 million in 1983.

Steven R. Schlesinger, director of the bureau of justice statistics, pointed out that burglaries and larcenies of households per thousand were at their lowest rates since the survey was begun in 1973. The burglary-per-household rate was 62.1 per thousand, down 11.3% from 1983. Larcenies per household were down 7.1%, to 97.8 per thousand.

Schlesinger suggested that the overall reduction in the crime rate could be attributed to the fact that convicted criminals are more likely to be sentenced to prison, they are receiving longer prison sentences, there is increased citizen involvement in crime prevention activities and there is a reduction in the crime-prone age group of 14 to 24 as those born during the post-World War II “baby boom” grow older.

Unlike many sociologists, Schlesinger played down the impact of the age shift. From 1960 to 1976, he said, crime rates increased faster than the size of the 14- to 24-year-old group, while from 1978 to 1983 the rates decreased faster than the size of that age group.

He said that an increase in the number of incarcerated criminals in recent years has been a key to the reduced crime rate. “Criminals in jails or prisons are at least temporarily unable to victimize the public,” Schlesinger said.

Theft, the largest category of crime, was down 4.5% in 1984, from 14.6 million to 13.9 million. The report estimated that the overall number of household burglaries decreased 9.7%, a decline that was slightly smaller than the drop in the rate of burglaries per household. Household larcenies--thefts in which there is no illegal entry--declined 5.4%.

The survey reported a 0.8% rise in violent crimes, with most categories of assault showing increases. Robberies involving assaults that caused injuries rose 11.2%, to 208,000. And robberies that included minor assaults were up 4.1%, to 198,000. Aggravated assaults increased 6.2%, but simple assaults decreased 0.2%.

The most substantial increase was a 21% jump in rape cases, with attempted rapes up an estimated 30%, from 105,000 to 136,000. Completed rapes were up 5.4%, from 50,000 to 52,000. But Stuart Smith, a spokesman for the statistics bureau, cautioned that figures for uncommon crimes were extrapolated from samples so small that there was a substantial possibility of error.

Unlike the FBI’s annual Uniform Crime Reports, which record serious crimes reported to police, the National Crime Survey works from Census Bureau samples to develop data on all crimes, unreported as well as officially reported.