BASEBALL ’85 : DODGERS : It Might Be Another Long Season in Chavez Ravine If the Previews Are Correct--Some Say Team Can Finish No Better Than Fourth

It’s still a guaranteed smash at the box office, but so was “Porky’s Revenge.” If the critics coast-to-coast are to be believed, the 1985 Dodger revue is an artistic disaster, and the show has not even begun.

For the first time in Tom Lasorda’s nine years as manager, the Dodgers are given virtually no chance of winning the National League’s Western Division. Judging by the reviews, Lasorda should be preparing his concession speech instead of his Opening Day lineup. A sampling of opinion:

The Atlanta Journal and Constitution, picking the Dodgers to finish fourth: “A truly mediocre team last year . . . myopic arrogance dooms them to another down season.”

Sport magazine, also predicting fourth: “There was a time in the not-so-distant past when the Dodgers’ player development system was the standard against which all other teams were measured. . . . We won’t be fooled again. The last few years have shown us that much of that image--finely constructed and expertly tooled--is mere Hollywood puff.”

The Sporting News columnist Bill Conlin, who picks them fifth: “Lots of luck to a defense that includes Steve Sax, Dave Anderson, Al Oliver and Pedro Guerrero.”

And so it goes. The Dodgers are bearing the fruits of their first second-division finish in 15 years and their first sub-.500 season in five. And while Dodger Vice President Al Campanis may sound like a Greek oracle with such pronouncements as “Woe to them who misplace the Dodgers,” to others he sounds like a fortune-teller who pulled a joker out of his deck of Tarot cards.

Baby Blue, the Dodger kiddie crusade that won a division title in 1983, is showing signs of arrested development.

“Whether we have oversold our talent, or overstated what our talent is all about, I don’t know the answer,” said Dodger Vice President Fred Claire. “I hope we haven’t. It would be foolish to oversell our talent.

” . . . The players we have today have arrived with much greater pressure than when Garvey, Cey and the others came on the scene in the early ‘70s. We hadn’t won since ‘66, and ’67 and ’68 were really bad years. It wasn’t until ’74 that we won again.”

If the prognosis sounds uncommonly bleak, consider that for the bottom-liners, the fact remains that Al Oliver and Jay Johnstone constitute the Dodgers’ only response to finishing last in the majors in hitting last season and last in the league in runs scored.

The defense will be intermittent and the Dodgers’ pitching staff, which figured to be the league’s best, is threatening to take up permanent residency in the trainers’ room. Alejandro Pena already has been lost, probably for the season, Rick Honeycutt is a constant worry, and Steve Howe is the X factor.

Then there’s Tom Niedenfuer, who had shoulder trouble last spring, elbow trouble in May and passed out from a kidney-stone attack in June. Couldn’t possibly have another season like that, right? Well, this spring, Niedenfuer nearly choked on a piece of pasta in the Dodger clubhouse. It’s hoped that was only an oversized tortellini, not an omen.

Oliver had a splendid spring at the plate, but that’s no surprise from a man who has hit over .300 in each of the last nine seasons. Still, he represents a calculated risk: The Dodgers are betting that he wins them more games with his bat than he loses for them afield, where his arm has forced the Dodgers to adopt a defensive alignment similar to what you see in softball, with shortstop Dave Anderson in the outfield so much he looks like a 10th fielder.

That’s one reason Oliver has had more teams (4) than home runs (0) since July, 1983.

Oliver, who will bat in the No. 3 spot in the Dodger order, has driven in more than 80 runs 10 times in his career, but whether he does so in Los Angeles will be dependent on the first two men in the Dodger order, Steve Sax and Ken Landreaux.

Sax’s batting average not only dropped nearly 40 points last season, his on-base percentage of .300 was the worst of any leadoff man in the league. Landreaux (.251) had an even worse on-base percentage, .295, and his 10 stolen bases was his lowest total in four seasons. And if Landreaux isn’t helping the Dodgers at the plate, he’s not helping them at all; the Baseball Abstract rates Landreaux last among NL center fielders defensively.

The party line is that both players had off-seasons in 1984. Indeed, Sax showed signs this spring of being the offensive catalyst he needs to be; Landreaux, less so.

Lasorda had a proposition for Landreaux one day in Vero Beach this spring.

“K.T., let’s you and I go into the clubhouse, lie down side by side on two rubbing tables in the trainers’ room, and we’ll have one of the great heart surgeons, Dr. DeBakey, take my heart and put it in your body. And we’ll take your heart and put it in my body.

“I’ll guarantee you, you’d be one of the greatest players ever to wear a Dodger uniform. You’d put up numbers that’d shock Ty Cobb. First, you’d be a lot smarter. Second, you’d be tougher. Third, you’d have more power. And fourth . . . “

“And fourth,” Landreaux said, “I’d be one eating son of a gun.”

The levity aside, Lasorda had tugged at the edges of something that has gnawed at Dodger officials ever since Landreaux became their center fielder in 1981: He’s a hands-down winner in the Unfulfilled Talent competition.

And after his 1984 season, there are some who would suggest that Landreaux is a talent on the decline. The flow chart shows a 30-point drop in batting average and other pronounced drops in RBIs (66 to 47), stolen bases (30 to 10), doubles (25 to 11) and home runs (17 to 11).

“People only look at his hitting but how many people scored from second base because he wasn’t hustling after balls, or because he didn’t charge balls properly?” Dodger scout Ralph Avila asked.

During the winter, Campanis said something needed to be done to shake up Landreaux. Short of a trade or benching him, the Dodgers’ alternatives seemed few, although the Dodgers say his attitude has improved measurably.

“I don’t know what changed his mind,” Avila said. “Maybe he’s more mature. Or maybe he knows that it’s getting late for him.”

No Dodger has shown a greater change of heart than Pedro Guerrero, who has been the picture of sincerity in stating his desire to play third base. And if he’s not yet the picture of perfection defensively, he doesn’t resemble the fielder who committed 47 errors in a season and a half at third. And it would be a major surprise if he doesn’t return to the 30 home run, 100 RBI level to go along with a .300 batting average.

When healthy, Mike Marshall was one of the top power hitters in the league. He slumped to .229 with 7 home runs and 25 RBIs after the All-Star break, but should blossom in his third season.

Greg Brock appeared to have retained his first base job by default, until Sid Bream forced the Dodgers to reconsider with an outstanding spring, batting close to .400 and dominating the Freeway Series. The competition may be just what Brock needed, because he responded by driving in 11 runs this spring and batting over .300. But if Brock falters early, look for the Dodgers to make a change.

Mike Scioscia and Steve Yeager give the Dodgers solid catching. Scioscia, the team’s best hit-and-run man, struck out only 26 times in 341 at-bats and committed only four passed balls, fewest of any starting catcher in the league.

With a little more consistency, Anderson should do a passable job at short, with Bill Russell still around to serve as backup.

Johnstone was signed to improve the league’s worst group of pinch-hitters (.184 last season), but made it through spring training without getting a hit. R. J. Reynolds and Candy Maldonado will get work as extra outfielders, although you have to wonder how Reynolds’ stock dropped so quickly when at one time, in the opinion of Dodger scouting director Ben Wade, he was playing as well as anyone in the organization.

If that lineup strikes fear only into the Lite Beer All-Stars, the pitching could be, as pitching coach Ron Perranoski states, the best in baseball. Ken Howell, despite having less than 52 innings of big league experience, has already been ordained as one of the premier relievers in the game.

“There never was any doubt where Kenny Howell was going,” said none other than Sandy Koufax. “Whether it was going to take six months or sooner, you didn’t have to be a genius to see it was just a question of when it was going to happen. His presence is growing by leaps and bounds.”

From the right side, Howell and Niedenfuer could be as effective for the Dodgers as Rich Gossage and Ron Davis were for the Yankees. And if they can have Howe from the left side, the bullpen will have no peer, even with Bruce Sutter in Atlanta.

“Stevie has great heart and great determination,” said catcher Yeager. “He’s a fighter, and you’ve got to be pulling for him.”

Among the starters, the Dodgers at the moment can depend on Fernando Valenzuela, Jerry Reuss and Orel Hershiser. Valenzuela, five games under .500 last season, should at least reverse his 12-17 record. Reuss, healthy again, may triple his win total of five in ‘84, while Hershiser projects as at least a 15-game winner.

Bob Welch and Honeycutt should comprise the rest of the rotation, assuming Welch’s elbow and Honeycutt’s shoulder are OK. And that’s a big assumption.

The Dodgers went through 118 lineups last season; Lasorda hopes to stick with one in 1985. But only if everything falls in place will it be the one to win the West.

FO