U.S. Officials Predict Major Battle on Iran-Iraq Border

Iran and Iraq have begun to mass even greater concentrations of troops along the southern reaches of their war-torn border, according to Reagan Administration officials who expect what one said Monday would be “a hell of a battle.”

These officials, speaking on the condition that they not be identified, said they expect the Iranians to drive toward the Iraqi city of Basra, which is separated by marshes from the northern end of the Persian Gulf. So far, the Iranians have been unsuccessful in their costly efforts to overcome Iraqi troops in the marshes.

Such a campaign would send the Iranians against some of the best-prepared Iraqi troops, the officials said. But, if successful, it would be considered a military breakthrough for Tehran.

In addition, according to one official, the United States is receiving indications of “growing domestic unrest, due to the economy and the war,” in Iran. Such unrest is “being watched very carefully,” he said.

The reports, based on intelligence information, painted a picture of pressure continuing to build up in the war zone and of continuing difficulties for Iran. But Western reporters have rarely been able to reach the front, and independent assessments, as well as detailed government reports, have been infrequent.

The officials stressed that although intelligence reports indicated that the buildup has been under way for several weeks, there is no indication when the battle will begin. Nor were officials willing to say that such a campaign would end the 4 1/2-year-old war between the two Persian Gulf nations.

And, one observer said, the picture is confused partly because some Iraqi reserve units have been demobilized, sending mixed signals about Baghdad’s intentions.

The fighting has exacted a terrible toll among ground troops, many of them young, ill-prepared Iranians, and the expected battle is likely to result in a great number of casualties, officials said.

“The ground war situation seems to be a case of Iranians being willing to hit their heads against the wall again and again,” said Frederick W. Axelgard, a research associate at Georgetown University’s Center for Strategic and International Studies and an expert on Persian Gulf politics.

“The one area where they could make a difference, if they could break through, is Basra,” he said. “But they’re going into the teeth of the best Iraqi preparations. The Iranians appear to have no other military option. It will be very bloody, very costly to both sides.”

Heavy Iranian Losses

In the past, the Iranians have lost as many as seven to nine soldiers for each Iraqi killed, although that ratio may have dropped recently to 3 to 1, Axelgard said.

Also, he said, Iran is faced with the prospect of Iraq strengthening its position in the Persian Gulf through the construction over the next 18 months of two oil pipelines--one across Saudi Arabia and a second across Turkey--that could each carry half a million barrels of oil daily.

“What the Iranians are looking at is a significantly enhanced Iraqi resource” that will enable the Baghdad regime to purchase more weapons from the Soviet Union and France, he said.

Administration officials said the Iranians have deployed as many as 100,000 troops in the current buildup, including the Revolutionary Guards, who have spearheaded the fighting, as well as several hundred tanks and some artillery and armored equipment. In addition, more entrenchments have been built in the war zone.

‘No One Could Predict’

“But no one could predict when any battle would begin,” one official said.

Still, said another official, “the expectation is, there will be a hell of a battle.”

He said that Iran “took a lot of casualties in the marshes” south of Basra over the last month and that it has been goaded into stepping up a drive toward Basra by Iraq’s air war over Tehran. In March, Iraq staged at least nine air raids on the Iranian capital and struck ships near Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal.

However, the Iranians have claimed responsibility for a number of large explosions in Baghdad in recent weeks, saying they were caused by surface-to-surface missiles fired from more than 100 miles away.