High-Stakes Gambling

American and Israeli officials disclaim any connection between Israel’s release of 31 Lebanese detainees and the fate of the 40 hostages of TWA Flight 847. The Lebanese were sent home strictly as a routine legal matter, according to Israel, which then took some pains to explain the precise basis in law for its action. It all sounds very plausible. Except, of course, that the prime minister of Israel does not usually phone the U.S. secretary of state at 2 a.m. to discuss routine legal matters.

The release of the detainees was obviously meant to test the flexibility of the Shia Muslims, to see whether in return for the 31 the Shias might give up two or three of the Americans whom they hold and so begin an unnegotiated exchange process. The response from Nabih Berri, leader of the Shia Amal militia and self-described mediator in the hostage affair, came quickly. Nothing doing, he said, and then he added a new, but not necessarily final, demand. Berri wants the U.S. Navy ships that are now in international waters off Lebanon to be pulled back.

It is clear that Berri and the Shias are gambling for much higher stakes than the release of the detainees in Israel. Long despised and downtrodden, the Shias are now bidding for political dominance in Lebanon, and they see the chance to embarrass the United States and Israel as aiding that effort. There is no doubt that Israel, by illegally and needlessly moving its captives out of Lebanon, helped set the stage for this particular play. The question to be faced is whether any benefit can be had by continuing the game on the Shias’ terms.

Israel says that it was preparing to release 300 of its detainees before the TWA airliner was hijacked. In that case, why release only 31 now? Indeed, why not simply let go all of the remaining 735 detainees, who were destined for early release anyway, without conditions and without reference to the hostages? Such an action would by no means guarantee the safe return of the Americans held in Lebanon, or assure that Berri would not make fresh demands. But quickly sending the detainees home would either force the Shias’ to make good on the bargain that they have offered or expose them as liars and connivers who have forfeited any claim to be trusted.