Trouble for U.S. in Philippines

The public outrage and street demonstrations that followed the assassination of Philippine opposition leader Benigno S. Aquino Jr. two years ago found an echo this week as Filipinos again marched to demand an end to the heavy-handed rule of President Ferdinand E. Marcos, whose regime is widely assumed to have been involved in the Aquino killing. Marcos, as usual, was unmoved. Though his nation is beset by enormous economic problems and a growing communist-led insurgency, Marcos seems to be increasingly confident that he can maintain and perpetuate his 20-year hold on power. However dark prospects for the Philippines may be, Marcos is behaving like a man whose own future is secure.

For now, at least, there may be some basis in fact for that confidence. The democratic opposition remains typically divided, unable to agree on a common program or common candidate to run against Marcos in the next presidential election. That is not scheduled until 1987, but lately there have been hints that Marcos will move the date up, perhaps to as early as this fall, in an effort to take advantage of the disunity among his opponents. Meanwhile, the trial of 26 persons accused of complicity in the Aquino assassination--among them Marcos’ close friend Gen. Fabian Ver, now on leave as chief of staff of the armed forces--has moved inconclusively into its sixth month. The prosecution, frustrated because some of its key witnesses have failed to appear in court, is having a hard time proving its case. That, too, is working to Marcos’ advantage.

The United States continues to press for economic stabilization and reform in the Philippines, for reforms within the military and for adoption of an electoral code that would ensure honest elections. But, caught between the foot-dragging of the Marcos regime--whose members and supporters have enriched themselves enormously through corruption and favoritism--and the undeniable threat to American interests that is posed by the communist insurgency, Washington finds its leverage sorely limited. One consequence is that the United States is being increasingly accused of responsibility for keeping Marcos in power. The claim is unfair, but the perception behind it seems real. That perception can be counted on to spell hard times for U.S. relations with the Philippines in the post-Marcos era.