Impact of ‘Baby Boomlet’ on Future School Enrollments Raises Concerns

The post-World War II baby boomers have sired a population “boomlet” of their own, reversing a 13-year decline in the number of elementary and secondary school students and generating concern among educators over accommodating the new young students.

The Education Department expects about 50,000 more students this fall than schools nationwide had last school year, signaling the beginning of a wave that will continue to swell for decades.

Although this year’s increase itself will be small, Education Secretary William J. Bennett says “it presages a new trend that will affect elementary and secondary school enrollment for a number of years.”

7% Increase by 1993

By 1993, the total number of students in elementary and secondary schools will reach 47.9 million, 7% above the 1984 figure, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, a branch of the Education Department. Elementary school enrollment alone will increase 14%, the center reported recently.

And with this trend, which is outlined in census projections, will come a number of problems, including a need to provide adequate numbers of teachers, schools and other facilities--particularly in big cities in the South and West, experts warn.

Without adequate preparation for the increases--especially more tax revenues--class sizes will grow and the quality of education “will get worse and worse each year,” said Noe Medina, director of the education division at the Children’s Defense Fund.

C. Emily Feistritzer, director of the privately run National Center for Education Information, says that minorities will make up a disproportionate share of the increased enrollment in public schools because their populations are growing faster than that for whites.

Growth of Minorities

The Census Bureau projects that by 1990, blacks and other minorities will make up 15.6% of the population, rising to 18.3% by the year 2010. But their percentage of public school enrollment, Feistritzer said, will be almost double those figures--percentages that some big cities already exceed.

“If public schools become havens for the poor--those who cannot afford private education--then we face as a society a kind of undesirable situation of the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots,’ ” Feistritzer said. In this event, she said, both whites and non-whites would suffer because “schools really do serve a sociological function of homogenizing cultures, and that is a central component for anybody’s education.”

Samuel G. Sava, executive director of the National Assn. of Elementary School Principals, says that his organization is particularly concerned about the influx of foreign-born Latino students in schools that have severe shortages of bilingual teachers.

Citing an “achievement gap” between the newcomers and native students, Sava says that schools need to seriously consider allowing students to enroll at age 4 “to build that early confidence, that can-do spirit.”

Teacher Shortage Called Key

Although the impending “baby boomlet” embodies a host of potential problems, in the view of Mary Futrell, president of the National Education Assn., the shortage of teachers is a metaphor for them all, showing a lack of foresight that bodes ill for other matters as well.

The shortages most afflict areas of science, bilingual education and mathematics, but increasingly appear in subjects across-the-board. This year, the nation needs 158,000 new teachers, but the supply of teachers with certificates is 12,000 short, according to the National Center for Educational Statistics.

By 1993, the gap will balloon to 78,000, the center says, as it estimates that the country will need at least 211,000 new teachers that year.

Futrell says that the problem stems from rising populations, aging teachers who retire and the declining popularity of the profession. And it is exacerbated, she says, by the fact that districts nationwide are relaxing standards to allow applicants with college degrees--but not teacher training--to enter the classrooms.

“This shortage is upon us,” she said, “and we’re running around looking for teachers and putting people in place who have not been trained.”

Space Shortage Cited

Similarly, she said, many districts likely will get caught short on school space because during the years of declining enrollments “we either sold the schools or we tore them down.”

Nationwide, the number of public elementary and secondary schools numbered 84,700 in 1983, representing a 6% decline from 1971. The number of elementary schools alone dropped 14% during that period.

“As we look at an increase in the student population, unless we have vacant rooms to accommodate them, we will have to look at building programs,” Futrell said.

Such programs cost money, however, and it is unclear whether financially strapped states and cities will make huge commitments to building schools as federal aid to them decreases.

During the 1970s, state revenues replaced local funds as the principal source of public school spending. Because state revenues are mostly sales and income taxes, their availability varies greatly with business cycles--not to mention political climates.

Per-pupil spending rose considerably during the 1970s as enrollments declined. Many experts worry now that as the enrollment begins to rise again, taxpayers will be reluctant to agree to more levies for education.

‘Blood Ties’ a Factor

What it will come to in many areas, Feistritzer suggested, is how many voters have “blood ties” to the schools.

Always an important factor when money is discussed, of course, is the issue of teacher pay.

Futrell has advocated a starting salary of at least $24,000, a figure that is a world away from reality in many states. In fact, the average figure for all 2.1 million teachers in the nation--including the most experienced--is $23,546. In Los Angeles, beginning teachers are paid $19,084, with bilingual teachers earning an extra $2,000.

Nevertheless, the fight for higher salaries goes on. Firing a volley, NEA spokesman Howard Carroll said that as enrollment increases and the nation continues to push an education “reform movement,” teachers will not stay with the profession unless districts “push these salaries up.”

In the absence of adequate teachers and facilities, Medina of the Children’s Defense Fund envisions a situation with “classes of 35 to 40 students, teachers unable to provide adequate education and basically just keeping kids from killing each other. You’d see more kids dropping out, and you’d see the whole education system reverting to where it was before it was upgraded 30 years ago.”

Dire Impact Discounted

Some educators see no likelihood of such dire events, however. At the Education Department, Chester E. Finn Jr., assistant secretary for educational research and improvement, said that the wave of children from the baby boomlet “is not about to drown us.” He added that “it’s not as if we were caught off guard” by the increasing population.

But he conceded that the need for bilingual teachers is not being met and seems unlikely to be in the near future.

As for other teacher shortages, he said, there are “tens of millions of people around the country” who could teach if certification rules were waived--the very practice that NEA President Futrell deplores.

Finn, taking the optimistic road, sums up the “baby boom echo” as an opportunity, not a problem. Referring to the contraction of school systems in recent years, he said that it is “exceedingly difficult to shrink, but it is much more exciting to grow, and those problems are not insoluble.”

AGING BABY BOOMERS

1970 Percent 18-24 12.1 25-34 12.4 35-44 11.3 45-54 11.4 55-64 9.1 1980 18-24 13.3 25-34 16.3 35-44 11.6 45-54 10.2 55-64 9.5 1990 18-24 10.3 25-34 16.9 35-44 15.0 45-54 10.4 55-64 8.5 2000 18-24 9.5 25-34 13.3 35-44 15.9 45-54 13.7 55-64 8.9 2010 18-24 10.3 25-34 13.1 35-44 12.6 45-54 14.7 55-64 12.0 2020 18-24 9.0 25-34 13.6 35-44 12.5 45-54 11.8 55-64 12.8

Source: Computed by American Soceity for Training and Development from Census Bureau projections, assuming fertility of 2.1 children per mother. Percentages do not add to 100 for each year because age groups below 18 and over 65 are omitted from this table.